On Wednesday, ASML, a Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer (ASML -9.12%), cautioned investors that its sales could potentially remain unchanged in the year 2026. This announcement has raised concerns about whether the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) might not be as certain as previously believed by investors, causing a temporary drop in the share prices of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM -0.19%), a contract chip manufacturer.
Initially, shares of TSMC dropped over 4% during the early market hours. However, by 12:10 p.m. ET, they had recovered most of their losses, leaving the TSMC stock with a modest decrease of just 0.2%.
Semiconductor logic
Why might TSMC’s sales growth stall if ASML’s sales are slowing? The AI revolution has been expected to boost semiconductor stocks, benefiting both chip sellers like TSMC and machine manufacturers that produce the chips, such as ASML. However, if ASML’s sales have only increased by 0.6% year over year in Q2 (compared to previous years), it could suggest a potential slowdown in TSMC’s own sales growth as well due to a logical connection between the two companies’ performance.
That’s the worry that fretted investors this morning.
Is TSMC stock a sell?
In contrast to what many analysts believe, a significant increase in TSMC’s total sales isn’t unlikely – quite the contrary. According to analysts surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, TSMC’s annual sales growth over the next five years is expected to average almost 20%. Given its 22.4-times earnings valuation and its 1.8% dividend yield, it appears that TSMC is well-positioned for the sustained growth that most analysts anticipate.
While it’s true that temporary setbacks might occur, it seems that ASML’s growth may be decelerating, partially due to restrictions on exporting chip-making equipment to China. However, there are numerous other countries in the global market that require chips, and both ASML and TSMC have the opportunity to continue selling their products to these regions instead.
Long term, I expect TSMC stock is going to do just fine.
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2025-07-16 21:18