When Optimism Meets Reality: JPMorgan’s Skepticism on 3% US Growth 🤷‍♂️

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Amidst the bustling corridors of Wall Street, the chief global strategist of the financial behemoth JPMorgan, David Kelly, has cast a shadow of doubt over the White House’s rosy economic projections. In a recent interview with CNBC Television, Kelly expressed his skepticism with a mix of professional gravitas and a hint of weariness, as if he had heard such optimistic forecasts one too many times.

“The White House’s 3% projected growth for the economy? I don’t see how we’ll do that,” Kelly remarked, his voice tinged with a subtle sarcasm. “To achieve such a feat, we’d need to boost productivity to levels unseen in recent history. But let’s be honest, with baby boomers retiring and the working-age population shrinking, it’s like trying to row a boat upstream without a paddle.”

According to Kelly, the long-term economic growth of the US has averaged about 2% this century, a figure that breaks down to 1.5% from productivity and 0.5% from labor growth. “The problem is, the baby boomers are retiring, and the native-born working-age population is shrinking. If we end up with zero net immigration, we’ll have no employment growth, which means we’re looking at 1.5%, not 3%,” he explained, his tone a blend of resignation and realism.

“Now, we might do better than 1.5%, but we’re not close to 3%. There’s nothing in the current outlook that suggests we can sustain 3% growth. It’s like expecting a tortoise to win a sprint race against a hare. It’s just not in the cards,” Kelly added, a wry smile playing on his lips.

The White House’s projection for the growth of the US economy is tied to President Donald Trump’s latest spending bill, which includes extensions on tax breaks and is currently under scrutiny in Congress. One can almost hear the collective sigh of the economic analysts as they watch the political theater unfold, wondering if the bill will be the magic wand that transforms the tortoise into a hare.

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2025-07-04 17:41