USA Rare Earth: A Deposit and a Hope

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So, USA Rare Earth (USAR +0.30%). The stock jumped 16.2% last week. Honestly, I mostly noticed because my portfolio alert sounded, and I briefly panicked, wondering what I’d accidentally bought while half-asleep. Turns out, it was just a blip of good news for a company aiming to dig stuff out of the ground. They released some investor presentations. Not exactly page-turners, but apparently enough to get a few people excited. The plan, as I understand it, is to actually produce things by 2028. Ambitious. Like deciding to learn Mandarin in a week.

The Numbers Game

They’re dangling the usual financial carrots – $2.6 billion in revenue, $1.2 billion in EBITDA, $900 million in free cash flow by 2030. It’s helpful, this forecasting, even if it feels like predicting the weather a decade out. Gives you something to compare to the current $4.4 billion market cap, which, if those numbers hold, would mean the stock isn’t completely insane. Less than 5x FCF, 3.7x EBITDA. My aunt Mildred always said anything under 10x was a steal. She also collected porcelain dolls, so take that as you will.

The company recently got some government support, which is always a good sign. Or a sign that someone, somewhere, is hoping this works. Either way, they have to actually do the thing – produce metals and magnets at their Stillwater facility, and then, you know, the whole Round Top operation. It’s a lot of moving parts, and I’m starting to feel a bit anxious just thinking about it.

Heavy Rare Earths and the Promise of Not Relying on Everyone Else

The interesting thing about Round Top isn’t just that they’re digging, it’s what they’re digging. It’s rich in heavy rare earths, which apparently is a big deal. They claim it’s the only deposit in the world with over 70% heavy rare earths. I’m not a geologist, but that sounds… good? Dysprosium and Terbium are key for electric vehicles, defense, and renewable energy. Basically, everything we’re all supposed to be switching to. It’s a bit like realizing you’ve been using the wrong kind of paperclips your entire life.

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They’ve hired Fluo and WSP Global to help with the mine development, which feels reassuring. Like calling a plumber when your toilet overflows. And they’re suggesting they can get this done in three and a half years, instead of the usual seven. I’m skeptical, of course. Everything takes longer than expected. My therapist keeps telling me to manage my expectations, but it’s hard when you’re hoping for a functioning domestic supply chain.

So, What Now?

USA Rare Earth has ambitious plans, and the whole heavy rare earth thing is undeniably appealing. It’s about securing a domestic supply, which, let’s face it, feels increasingly important. I’m not saying it’s a sure thing. Nothing ever is. But it’s a little flicker of hope in a world that often feels like it’s running on fumes. And sometimes, that’s enough to make me cautiously optimistic. Or, at least, less anxious for a few minutes.

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2026-02-27 15:52