S&P 500’s September Surprise: A Contrarian’s Take

by

The S&P 500 did something it hasn’t done since 2010: it rose in September. A month that’s usually the stock market’s grave. So it goes.

Tariffs, those modern-day taxes on the soul of commerce, have pushed import costs to 1940s levels. Inflation, a slow poison, has crept up. But companies, like good soldiers, have absorbed most of the pain. So it goes.

Businesses, confused by the chaos, hire fewer workers. The jobs report is worse than a bad dream. Yet the market smiles. So it goes.

History says the fourth quarter is the market’s favorite season. But history also says the sky is falling. So it goes.

The S&P 500’s Autumn Ritual

September is the stock market’s version of a bad haircut. Investors panic, sell, and the market obeys. But this year, the S&P 500 danced. A small victory, but a victory. So it goes.

Why? Maybe because investors, like children, forget the past. Or because the market is a fickle lover. Either way, the fourth quarter is when the market dances, but why? Because people are tired of the summer heat and the winter cold. So it goes.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged 4.2% in October-December. A number that sounds impressive until you remember the market is a fickle friend. So it goes.

September’s Good News, Next Year’s Uncertainty

When September is good, the next year is usually better. But then again, the market is a fickle friend. So it goes.

FactSet’s forecast says the S&P 500 will rise 10%. A number that sounds like a promise, but promises are like rain-unreliable. So it goes.

The risks are real. Tariffs, inflation, weak jobs. But the market, as ever, is a fickle lover. So it goes. 📉

Read More

2025-10-04 11:07