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This series, a rather impertinent attempt to dissect the Berkshire phenomenon, begins with an examination of its foundations. The aim, if one can call it that, is not to offer investment advice – a tiresome and usually fraudulent occupation – but rather to understand how a rather unlikely combination of prudence and opportunism has yielded such consistent, and frankly astonishing, results. One must, after all, account for the prevailing winds, and the occasional squall.

For the three months ending December, Sirius XM generated revenue of $2.19 billion, translating to adjusted EBITDA of $691 million. Both metrics surpassed consensus estimates. More significantly, the company demonstrated a halting of previously observed deterioration in key performance indicators. Year-over-year revenue exhibited a modest increase, while the subscriber base expanded for the second consecutive quarter, accelerating from a net addition of 11,000 in Q3 to 118,000 in Q4. Free cash flow improved by 5% year-over-year, and management anticipates broadly consistent performance between 2025 and 2026.

The question, naturally, is whether this presents a buying opportunity. Or, as I rather suspect, a rather elegant trap for the unwary.

For sixteen consecutive years, Ares Capital has maintained a dividend, either stable or, dare we say, growing. In a world where promises are as fleeting as digital sprites, this is akin to discovering a dragon who reliably pays its taxes. It suggests a certain… competence. A solid position, indeed, for continuing to distribute wealth, or, as the alchemists call it, ‘making money from money’.

The stock did rather well for most of 2025, but then it went absolutely bonkers in November, shooting up like a startled jackrabbit. They reported a 26% jump in revenue and a 72% boost in gross profit. Impressive, perhaps, but numbers can be awfully misleading, like a magician’s trick. They also ended the year with a tidy pile of cash – $1.3 billion, they say – and a backlog of orders worth $22.5 billion. That’s almost ten times their yearly earnings. A mountain of promises, if you ask me, and mountains are awfully good at crumbling.

The peak, reached on January 28th, now appears a distant, almost illusory, landmark. The stock, having briefly touched $132 per share, has since receded, a retreat that mirrors, with unnerving accuracy, the fortunes of the very commodities it extracts. The process, one suspects, is not driven by logic, but by a sort of inertial drift, a consequence of forces operating beyond the scope of rational assessment.

The crude, that dark and volatile elixir, has stirred from its slumber. Both WTI and Brent, those benchmarks of global commerce, experienced a renaissance in January, soaring by 14% and 16% respectively. A most welcome turn of events for those who derive their livelihood from its extraction, refinement, and sale. It marks the end of a six-month drought for crude, and the beginning, perhaps, of a renewed era of prosperity… or, at least, a temporary reprieve from the sting of declining fortunes.

Over the past three years, the stock has doubled, a fact that feels less like a cause for celebration and more like a belated correction. Ford, meanwhile, has… remained. A single percent gain. The broader market, naturally, did better. Sixty-eight percent. One wonders if the market, like a fickle acquaintance, simply prefers a more animated companion.

They had this whole thing happen – Fukushima, right? Uranium prices plummeted. Naturally. Then everyone’s shutting down mines. Sensible, I guess. Except then nobody told the uranium! It just… sat there. And now, suddenly, everyone needs power for these cloud things and AI. AI! Like that solves anything. And now it’s a crisis. A crisis because they shut down the mines. It’s just… predictable. It’s always something.