Oil & Troubles: A Brief History of More Troubles

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The fellow running the International Energy Agency—a perfectly sensible name, really—said this latest bit of unpleasantness in Iran is the biggest energy security threat in history. A strong statement. They always are, aren’t they? Like saying a particular rainstorm is the wettest ever. It will be forgotten by Tuesday. So it goes.

He also noted—and this is the kicker—that even if the fighting stopped right now, getting the oil flowing again would take months. Months! As if time itself cares about our carefully constructed economies. It doesn’t. It just keeps coming.

Let’s look at who’s winning and losing, shall we? Not that winning or losing really matters in the grand scheme of things. But people like to keep score. It’s a habit.

The Downcast

  • Asian Markets: Japan and South Korea are, as they say, “highly dependent” on oil from that part of the world. Which is a polite way of saying they’re stuck. Rising prices and blocked shipping lanes don’t help. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY 6.71%) is down 17% since the trouble started. A number. Just a number.
  • Cyclical Stocks: These are the things that go up when the economy is good and down when it isn’t. Surprise. Industrials are taking a beating, because everything costs more to ship and run. And if people have less money, they buy less stuff. The financial sector is also feeling a bit queasy, and discretionary stocks—the things people want but don’t need—are down nearly 10%. A predictable pattern, really.

The Briefly Fortunate

There are always winners, of course. Though their good fortune is usually built on someone else’s misery. It’s how the world works. Don’t think too hard about it.

  • Energy Stocks: Obvious, isn’t it? Oil and gas prices go up, energy companies make more money. It’s a simple equation. Cheniere Energy (LNG 0.35%), which exports liquid natural gas, is up about 20%. They’re probably having a party.
  • Commodity Stocks: Fertilizer prices are spiking, so CF Industries (CF 0.53%) is doing well. More food costs more. A vicious cycle.

What It Means For Your Portfolio (If You Have One)

The temptation to jump into energy and commodity stocks is strong. But things are volatile. Stocks have been bouncing around like pinballs, reacting to every rumor and headline. It could all change tomorrow. It usually does.

The sensible thing to do—and sensible things are rarely popular—is to prepare for more uncertainty and hold onto some cash. If something goes on sale, you’ll be ready. If not, well, you’ll still have some cash. And in the long run, that’s not a bad thing. So it goes.

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2026-03-21 18:34