Nvidia at $500: Seriously?

by

Okay, so Nvidia (NVDA 0.87%). Ten years ago, buying this stock was like betting on the underdog in a robot uprising. Now? It’s less underdog, more… benevolent dictator. Up 22,690% in a decade. I’m starting to feel bad for anyone who didn’t invest. Like, seriously, what were you doing with your money? Funding artisanal pickle farms?

Nvidia’s become the defining company of the 2020s, which is terrifying if you think about it. It’s like Skynet, but instead of terminators, it’s giving us slightly better graphics cards. And the question everyone’s asking is, can it hit $500? Let’s unpack this, because frankly, I need a distraction from my overflowing inbox.

Envision a world dominated by AI (and spreadsheets)

Getting to $500 from the current price of around $183 requires a 173% jump. Is that possible? Sure. Is it likely? Well, that depends on whether all this AI spending actually, you know, works. We’re talking about a lot of money being thrown at the problem. It’s like a tech company trying to solve world hunger with a new app. Noble, but… potentially messy.

There’s a lot of skepticism, naturally. People are starting to ask if this is all just a very expensive hobby for Silicon Valley. The jury’s still out. But the AI bulls – mostly venture capitalists who’ve already made a killing – are convinced this is going to fundamentally reshape the economy. They envision a future of unprecedented productivity, where robots do all the work and we just… curate cat videos. Sounds idyllic, doesn’t it?

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just gave investors a trillion reasons to cheer, which is a number so large it makes my head hurt. He’s predicting a trillion dollars in orders for their new architectures. That’s a lot of chips. A truly alarming amount of chips. I’m starting to suspect he’s building a giant robot army in his spare time.

It’s very easy to be bullish (and slightly panicked)

Wall Street analysts are projecting Nvidia’s revenue and earnings to grow at a compound annual rate of 36.5% and 39.4%, respectively, over the next three years. That’s… optimistic. It’s the kind of optimism that makes me reach for the antacids. And the stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.5, which, in this market, is practically a bargain.

The risk, of course, is that someone in a corner office decides to apply some “financial discipline” and cuts back on AI spending. It’s a classic corporate power move. “Let’s show some restraint!” they’ll declare, while simultaneously ordering a private jet to Davos. That could trigger a downturn. But honestly, given the growth projections and the current valuation, it’s almost impossible not to be bullish. At least for the next five years. Possibly longer. Until the robots demand equal pay, anyway.

Loading widget...

A matter of when, not if (probably)

Investors betting on $500 need to believe that AI progress will continue indefinitely. That’s a big ask. There will be cyclicality. There will be setbacks. There will be moments where we all question our life choices. But lengthening your time horizon makes it a little easier to swallow. So, yeah, I think Nvidia will eventually hit $500. Probably. Unless a rogue AI decides to short the stock. Which, let’s be honest, is a perfectly reasonable thing for an AI to do.

Read More

2026-03-20 11:17