in the future. Rare earth minerals. Ninety percent of that business happens in China, which is a fact that makes certain people in Washington very twitchy. So it goes.
The government, naturally, is throwing money at the problem. A “mine-to-magnet” strategy, they call it. Sounds ambitious. And expensive. MP Materials is one of the beneficiaries. The stock price is down almost fifty percent from its peak. A dip, they say. An opportunity. Opportunities are often just disasters delayed.
Digging Up America
MP Materials has a mine in California. The Mountain Pass mine. It’s the only one of any real size in North America. They pull out neodymium-praseodymium. Sounds like a disease, doesn’t it? But it’s what makes the magnets that power electric cars and robots and, unfortunately, weapons. So it goes.
Last year, they made a deal with the Department of Defense. The DOD agreed to buy their stuff, and to guarantee a price. A price floor of $110 a kilogram. For ten years. In return, the government got fifteen percent of the company. A tidy sum, if it works. Everything’s a gamble, really.
They used to dig up the ore and ship it to China for processing. Now they’re trying to do it all here. A patriotic supply chain. It’s a good story. Stories are rarely true. They’re building factories in Texas and, eventually, a bigger one. More digging, more processing, more magnets. It’s a lot of effort, isn’t it?
They produced almost 2,600 metric tons of that NdPr oxide last year. A record. They’re aiming for 3,000 tons of magnets annually. Then 10,000. Numbers. They mean something, I suppose.
A Magnet for Investors?
MP Materials stands out. That’s what the analysts say. They have mines and factories. They have contracts with Apple and General Motors, besides the DOD. Revenue could double by 2026, then double again by 2028. Projections. They’re always optimistic.
But it’s not that simple. They’re still building that big factory, the 10X facility. It won’t be ready until 2028. There’s execution risk, they say. Meaning things could go wrong. They almost always do. The stock is down. A good time to buy, if you’re feeling lucky. So it goes.
It’s a complicated business, digging things up. And even more complicated trying to make a profit from it. But someone has to do it. And MP Materials is trying. Whether they succeed is another question entirely.
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2026-03-23 20:12