Market Nerves & Trump: A Few Worries Keeping Me Up

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Right. So, the market. It’s been…pleasant, hasn’t it? Under President Trump, surprisingly buoyant. One almost starts to believe in miracles. Or, you know, efficient markets. Dow up 57%, S&P 70%, Nasdaq a frankly ridiculous 142% over the last few years. Then another 14%, 15%, 17% since January 20th, 2026. It’s all very…unnerving. I mean, things can’t just keep going up, can they? It feels…unsustainable. I’ve started checking my portfolio approximately every seven minutes.

Everyone’s talking about AI, and falling interest rates, and unexpectedly decent corporate earnings. Which is lovely, of course. But I’m a worrier. It’s a gift, really. And a few things are niggling. It’s like being at a really good party and suddenly realizing you left the oven on. Or that you haven’t diversified enough. (Must add more bonds. Definitely.)

Everyone assumes it’ll be tariffs that bring things crashing down. Trump and trade wars, the obvious villain. But honestly? I think it’ll be something sneakier. Something less…headline-grabbing. I’ve been making a list. A very long list. (Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 3. Hours Spent Reading Financial News: 11. Number of Times I’ve Considered Becoming a Beekeeper: 4.)

The Priciness of Everything

First, valuations. Oh, the valuations. It’s like everyone’s decided money grows on trees. The S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio – that CAPE ratio, as they call it – is currently dancing around 39-41. Which, apparently, puts it in the top two most expensive markets ever. Ever! It’s like buying a handbag because it’s ‘an investment’ – you just know it’s going to end badly.

They say a high CAPE ratio doesn’t mean an immediate crash, but history suggests it’s a pretty good indicator. Apparently, there have only been six times in the last 155 years when it’s been this high. And each time, the market took a tumble. (Must research historical market crashes. Maybe invest in a bunker.)

The AI Bubble – Déjà Vu All Over Again

Then there’s AI. It’s the new internet, everyone says. And yes, it’s exciting. Businesses are throwing money at it. But it feels…familiar. Like the dot-com boom all over again. Everyone getting carried away with hype and unrealistic expectations. We all remember 2000, don’t we? The S&P down 49%, Nasdaq down 78%. It was… traumatic. I’m starting to suspect AI is just a very expensive distraction. (Must resist urge to buy AI-powered toaster.)

The problem is, it takes ages for businesses to actually figure out how to use these new technologies effectively. They spend, they hype, they…underdeliver. And then the bubble bursts. It’s a predictable pattern, really. (Must read more about behavioral finance. And possibly take up meditation.)

The Fed – A House Divided

And finally, the Federal Reserve. Honestly, it’s a mess. They’re supposed to be the calm, rational voice of reason. But lately, they’ve been disagreeing about…everything. At least one member has dissented at every FOMC meeting for the last five meetings. It’s like a family dinner where everyone has a different opinion and no one is listening. (Must avoid discussing politics at family gatherings. And possibly invest in earplugs.)

And to make things even more complicated, Jerome Powell’s term is ending soon, and Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as his replacement. Warsh wants to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet, which could drive up interest rates. Which, as any sensible investor knows, is not ideal. It’s like trying to navigate a minefield while blindfolded. (Must update emergency preparedness kit. And possibly learn how to fly a helicopter.)

So, yes. Things are looking…interesting. I’m not saying a crash is imminent. But I am saying it’s probably a good time to review your portfolio. And maybe, just maybe, consider diversifying into something a little less…volatile. Like, I don’t know, gold? Or stamps? Or possibly beekeeping. It’s less stressful, I suspect. (Hours Spent Worrying About the Market: Too Many to Count.)

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2026-02-28 12:14