So, Lucid. (LCID 7.24%). Everyone’s asking if it’s going to zero. Honestly, it’s not about the car, which, fine, is…a car. It’s about the principle of it all. You invest in something, expecting a reasonable return, and then you’re left holding the bag while they burn through cash like it’s a contest. It’s just…rude.
They make a decent electric vehicle, I’ll grant you that. But “decent” doesn’t pay the bills, does it? And that’s the whole thing. They’re years from profitability, and in the meantime, they’re relying on someone else to keep the lights on. It’s like being perpetually stuck behind someone going 5 under in the fast lane.
You hear, “Lucid will get there eventually.” Sure, maybe. If everything aligns perfectly. But “perfectly” is a big ask, isn’t it? Especially in this market. It’s like expecting a perfectly ripe avocado every single time. It just doesn’t happen.
But here’s the real kicker, the thing that really gets under my skin. It’s not the lack of profit; it’s the dependence.
A Very Generous Benefactor
So, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). $925 billion in assets. They own about 60% of Lucid. It’s… convenient. They’ve been throwing money at this thing, and I’m not talking chump change. Almost $5.8 billion in the last two years. It’s like funding a hobby, not a business. And the worst part? They expect gratitude.
They’ll burn cash for years, even if everything goes smoothly. They need a miracle, frankly. And miracles aren’t exactly known for their reliability. It’s like ordering soup and hoping it arrives hot. You just can’t count on it.
They might need billions more to actually become profitable. And they’re counting on PIF to foot the bill. It’s a precarious situation. A very precarious situation. It’s like building a house of cards on a rickety table.
The Inevitable Disappointment
What happens when PIF decides they’ve had enough? That’s the question nobody wants to answer. Suddenly, the whole thing could unravel. Investors will panic, and Lucid will be left scrambling. It’s like realizing you’ve forgotten your wallet at home after you’ve started your vacation.
Their best hope? A desperate acquisition by a bigger automaker who wants their battery or software tech. A fire-sale, naturally. Shareholders wiped out. It’s…unsatisfying. To say the least. It’s like ordering a pizza and getting a salad instead. It’s just…wrong.
Is it likely? Who knows. It depends on the economy, the EV market, the price of tea in China… It’s a mess. A complete and utter mess.
But it’s a real possibility. And you should be aware of it. Because in the world of investing, things rarely go as planned. And when they don’t, it’s usually the little guy who gets stuck holding the bag. It’s just…the way things are.
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2026-01-16 15:13