Amidst the cacophony of high-profile token unlocks, July 2025 emerges as a month of profound significance, with over $1.8 billion in cumulative value set to flood the market. The month has already seen the completion of a $323 million unlock from SUI, the largest of July, and according to TokenUnlocks data, the third week of July will witness a peak in unlock activity, nearing the staggering sum of $1 billion. 🌟
This deluge of supply arrives at a time of cautious market sentiment and reactive liquidity flows, transforming each unlock into a potential catalyst. From the Solana-based meme coin, TRUMP, to Layer-2 leaders like Arbitrum (ARB) and modular chains like SUI, the unlock wave presents a mélange of risk and short-term trading opportunities. 🎡
Official Trump (TRUMP) Token Unlock
Image Source: Cryptorank
Unlock Date: July 18, 2025
Unlock Amount: ~90M TRUMP
Value: ~$455M–$462M
% of Max Supply: ~9%
Category: Creators & CIC Digital 1–4 allocations
President Donald Trump, ever the master of the grand entrance, has reportedly added over $620 million to his net worth through cryptocurrency ventures, with the TRUMP token playing a central role. This Solana-based meme coin, once a viral sensation fueled by political fervor, now stands at the precipice of a substantial unlock event that could send ripples through the market. 🌊
The upcoming 9% unlock, marking the first major release of team and contributor tokens following a 6–12 month cliff, introduces a significant shift in tokenomics. With only 20% of TRUMP’s 1 billion supply currently circulating, the new liquidity and potential sell pressure loom large. 🤔
TRUMPUSDT Price Analysis: Bearish Structure Ahead of Major Unlock
Image Source: Trading View
TRUMP is currently trading around $8.60, consolidating in a tight range as it approaches its $455M token unlock on July 18. The price action has been subdued, with a series of lower highs since its peak of $11.30 in early June. 📉
The Alligator indicators, those mystical creatures of the market, are fully fanned out in a bearish formation, with the green line (Lips) trailing below the red (Teeth) and blue (Jaw), confirming a persistent downtrend. 🐊
The RSI, hovering at 38.5 and rising slightly above its signal line at 36.8, suggests weak bullish momentum but remains in bearish territory, indicating hesitation from buyers. 🐻
A breakdown below $8.00 could accelerate losses to $7.50, with $6.90 as the next major demand zone. Conversely, a close above $9.20 is needed to invalidate this structure and target $10.50. Until then, the unlock event and broader meme coin fatigue weigh heavily on sentiment. 🤷♂️
Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock – Strong L2, Soft Price Structure?
Unlock Date: July 16, 2025
Unlock Amount: ~92.65M ARB
Value: ~$30.3M
% of Max Supply: ~1.17%
Category: Team & Advisor allocation
Image Source: Defilama
Arbitrum, the titan among Ethereum Layer-2s, currently holds over $2.4 billion in TVL, representing approximately 55–60% of all L2 value locked, as per DeFiLlama. June saw explosive growth across Arbitrum DeFi protocols like Uniswap, Fluid, and SushiSwap, drawing 2.4M+ users and sustaining high DEX liquidity. 🚀
Yet, despite its robust fundamentals, the upcoming unlock for team and advisors introduces a fresh token supply that could dampen short-term price action. 🤔
ARBUSD Price Analysis: Stalled Recovery with Bearish Tilt
Image Source: Trading View
Arbitrum (ARB) trades at $0.33, consolidating below the $0.34 resistance after multiple failed attempts to push higher. The price structure remains fragile, with no clear higher highs since the late June bounce. The Williams %R sits at –67, indicating bearish momentum creeping back in as buyers struggle to sustain pressure. 📉
Support rests near $0.310, with a breakdown risking a slide toward $0.285. If bears gain traction post-unlock, deeper moves toward $0.250 could follow. On the upside, ARB must close above $0.342 to signal a trend reversal. A breakout there could pave the way to $0.375 and possibly $0.41 if momentum revives alongside strong L2 narrative traction. 📈
Other Upcoming Token Unlocks to Watch – July 2025
1. ZRO (LayerZero) – July 20
LayerZero, the newly launched omnichain interoperability protocol, is set to unlock 24.68M ZRO tokens (~$46.5M)—its first major post-airdrop release, expanding circulating supply by over 2.5% within weeks of listing. 🌐
2. AVAIL – July 23
AVAIL, the modular data availability chain founded by a Polygon co-creator, will unlock 990.6M tokens (~$23.7M)—a staggering 9.2% of its total supply, potentially triggering volatility in the under-the-radar L1 space. 📊
3. XDAO – July 21
XDAO, a rising DAO infrastructure protocol, will release 6.44M tokens worth over $330M, a disproportionately large unlock that could create sharp price swings given its low market cap and liquidity. 🚀
4. MOCA – July 11
MOCA, a Web3 culture and GameFi governance token, is scheduled to unlock 241.72M tokens this week, aimed at community and contributor rewards, injecting liquidity into a niche but growing ecosystem. 🎮
5. PLUME – July 21
Plume Network, focused on real-world asset tokenization, is unlocking 239.8M tokens (~$21M) just ahead of its mainnet launch phase, highlighting investor interest in the RWA narrative. 🏦
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2025-07-09 16:16