Joby Aviation: 2026’s Sky-High Gamble or Just Another Unicorn Fad?

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In the grand circus of investing, everyone’s chasing the next “disruptor.” But let’s be real: Most of these shiny new toys end up in the same graveyard as Webvan and the Segway. Still, if you’re going to bet on a flying car company, why not pick one that at least looks like it’s not a scam? Enter Joby Aviation (JOBY), the eVTOL startup that’s somehow both the most overhyped and least tested company since NFTs. Let’s unpack why 2026 might be the year it either soars or becomes a very expensive paperweight.

Joby’s pitch is simple: Electric flying cars for urban commutes. Because nothing says “progress” like dodging skyscrapers in a vehicle that costs more than your firstborn’s college fund. Their planes are quiet, clean, and can supposedly taxi a hundred miles on a charge-though I’m still waiting for the part where they explain how you’ll charge them between flights to work and brunch. But hey, at least they’re not helicopters. Those things sound like a swarm of angry wasps with a vendetta.

Morgan Stanley says the eVTOL market could hit $9 trillion by 2050. That’s the financial equivalent of saying “If you build it, they will come”-and also ignoring basic math. But let’s not get bogged down by reality. If you’ve ever been stuck in traffic only to realize your flight’s already late, you’ll understand why people are desperate for a solution. Even if that solution is a $2 million aircraft that requires a pilot’s license to operate.

2026: Will Joby Finally Clear the Hurdles or Crash Like a Bad TikTok Trend?

Here’s the catch: No eVTOL company has cleared FAA certification to carry passengers. Joby’s done 70% of stage four of the process, which sounds impressive until you realize it’s like being 70% done with your taxes in March. You’re still not getting a refund. The FAA’s portion is only 50% complete, and they’re not exactly known for their efficiency. If this were a movie, they’d be the character who accidentally locks themselves in the certification vault for six months.

But the company’s not totally winging it (pun intended). In Dubai, they’ve tested their planes in 110-degree heat, which is either impressive engineering or a dare. They also plan to finish a “vertiport” at Dubai International Airport by 2026-assuming the sand doesn’t swallow it whole. Meanwhile, back in the U.S., Joby’s partnering with L3Harris to build a gas turbine hybrid for the military. Because nothing says “future of transportation” like a gas-guzzling drone that the Pentagon might use to scare pigeons.

If all this comes together, 2026 could be Joby’s breakout year. Going from “pre-revenue” to “flying rich people in Dubai” is a solid résumé boost, especially if the FAA finally signs off. But let’s not forget: This is a company valued at $11 billion with $232,000 in annual revenue. That’s a P/S ratio so high, it makes a Tesla look like a discount. You’d think they’re selling shares of the moon, not a plane.

Cash Burn: The Real FAA Test

Joby’s got $991 million in the bank, but at their current burn rate, that’ll evaporate in about two years. That’s assuming they don’t start paying their lawyers to defend against lawsuits from passengers who get vertigo mid-flight. And while they’ve got big-name partners like Toyota and Delta (the airline that still charges for legroom, because of course), partnerships don’t pay the bills when you’re burning cash faster than a birthday cake in a wildfire.

The stock’s already priced for perfection. A single positive FAA update could send it soaring, but a delay? Watch it nosedive faster than a pilot who forgot how to fly. This isn’t a buy-it-and-forget-it stock-it’s a rollercoaster with a 10% chance of mechanical failure.

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So, is Joby the next Uber, or the next Theranos? Only time will tell. But if you’re the type of investor who thrives on chaos and loves betting on companies that promise to “redefine mobility,” then by all means, jump in. Just don’t be surprised if you end up with a paper airplane instead of a jet. 🚁

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2025-09-07 19:46