So, the situation with Iran. It’s a bit like trying to follow a particularly convoluted plumbing system – you think you’ve got it figured out, and then another pipe appears. President Trump recently issued what amounted to a strongly worded request – reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and quickly – or things could get… energetic. The potential for disruption to oil supplies was, shall we say, noticeable. It’s always amusing, isn’t it, how much of global finance rests on the smooth flow of a rather viscous liquid?
Then, a pause. A five-day postponement of potential military action, apparently prompted by some dialogue. Which, in the world of international relations, is a bit like discovering a polite driver in a rush hour. The markets, predictably, reacted. Oil prices dipped, and oil stocks followed suit. It’s a reminder that markets don’t so much predict the future as react to the slightly less terrifying version of the present.
As someone who spends their days pondering the allocation of capital, I’ve been giving this a bit of thought. And, after a considerable amount of staring at charts and muttering to myself, here are a couple of things I’m doing right now.
Building an Oil Stock Watch List (Just in Case)
This week promises to be… eventful. If the U.S. and Iran manage to find some common ground (a surprisingly difficult thing to do, it turns out), crude prices will likely continue their downward trend. But if things escalate, well, let’s just say oil prices could get a good deal higher. It’s a classic uncertainty situation, and uncertainty, as any seasoned investor will tell you, is simply a breeding ground for both opportunity and regret.
So, I’m compiling a list of oil stocks I’d be comfortable buying depending on which way crude prices decide to go. At the top of that list is Chevron (CVX +1.30%). They’ve managed to get their breakeven point down to less than $50 a barrel – a feat of engineering and cost-cutting, frankly. And their balance sheet is, to put it mildly, robust. They’re projecting cash flow growth of over 10% annually through 2030 at $70 oil. That sort of stability is rather comforting in a world that seems determined to be unsettling.
Chevron can handle lower oil prices if peace prevails, and they’re well-positioned to benefit if prices rise. They’ve diversified their operations globally, which is always a sensible strategy – putting all your eggs in one basket, even a basket filled with oil, is rarely a good idea.
A Look at LNG (It’s More Complicated Than You Think)
The immediate impact of the recent tensions has been, so far, limited. But last week’s attack on energy infrastructure in Qatar – a response to an attack on their natural gas field, no less – is a different matter. It’s damaged two liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains operated by QatarEnergy (ExxonMobil also has a stake, naturally). QatarEnergy estimates it will knock out 17% of their capacity for three to five years. That’s a significant disruption, considering Qatar is one of the world’s top three LNG producers. It’s a bit like discovering your favourite tea shop has been temporarily closed.
This supply issue will ripple through the global LNG market long after the current situation resolves itself. That’s why I’m starting to explore LNG stocks. Chevron and Exxon are both major players in this space. But Cheniere Energy and Venture Global are leading U.S. LNG producers. Cheniere is expanding its LNG terminal in Corpus Christi, and Venture Global is expanding its Plaquemines LNG terminal. It’s a complex business, liquefying natural gas and shipping it across oceans, but someone has to do it.
Focusing on What’s (Relatively) Certain
Oil prices could swing wildly depending on how the talks with Iran unfold. That’s why I’m building that watchlist – to be ready to act when there’s a bit more clarity. And I’m also taking a closer look at LNG, which could see the most lasting impact from these events. It’s a long-term play, but in a world of short-term crises, a bit of long-term thinking is always a good idea. After all, someone still needs to heat their homes and power their factories, regardless of what’s happening in the Middle East.
Read More
- 20 Movies Where the Black Villain Was Secretly the Most Popular Character
- Can AI Lie with a Picture? Detecting Deception in Multimodal Models
- 25 “Woke” Films That Used Black Trauma to Humanize White Leads
- 22 Films Where the White Protagonist Is Canonically the Sidekick to a Black Lead
- Silver Rate Forecast
- Top 10 Coolest Things About Invincible (Mark Grayson)
- When AI Teams Cheat: Lessons from Human Collusion
- From Bids to Best Policies: Smarter Auto-Bidding with Generative AI
- Unmasking falsehoods: A New Approach to AI Truthfulness
- Top 20 Dinosaur Movies, Ranked
2026-03-23 21:32