Right, so, Grail (GRAL 3.59%). It had a week. Up 12.4%, which, honestly, is the kind of jump that makes me check my own holdings just to make sure I haven’t accidentally bought a load of something equally volatile. Turns out, a Wall Street analyst decided to be… optimistic. Upgraded it from ‘hold’ to ‘buy’. A ‘buy’, people. As if anyone’s entirely sure what they’re doing in this market. They even slapped a $65 price target on it, which is 39% above where it was Friday. Ambitious, isn’t it? I mean, it’s a target. They’re allowed to have them. Just… ambitious.
Let’s be brutally honest. This year hasn’t exactly been a picnic for Grail. That trial… the one where they were hoping to prove their Galleri test could detect cancer early and, you know, save lives? Didn’t quite land. Missed the primary endpoint. Stage III-IV reduction in detection. Failed. It’s the kind of result that makes you question everything, isn’t it? All the models, all the projections… It’s like trying to predict the weather. Except with more money at stake.
The idea, of course, was to catch things early. Shift the diagnoses from late-stage, terrifying news to early-stage, manageable problems. Simple, right? Except biology rarely cooperates with simplicity. They’re now claiming it might be the test itself that threw things off. Which, let’s face it, is a convenient explanation. They’re hoping follow-up data will magically appear and vindicate everything. Because, naturally, that’s how science works. A little wishful thinking never hurt anyone, right?
Here’s the slightly less depressing bit. The trial did show a “substantial increase” in Stage I-II cancers. And a “substantial and clinically meaningful reduction in Stage IV diagnoses.” Which is… good. Definitely good. It’s just that, because of the Stage III results, the overall primary endpoint wasn’t statistically significant. It’s a bit like baking a cake that looks beautiful but tastes vaguely of despair. Management is pinning everything on this six-to-12-month follow-up data. Apparently, cancers have a habit of developing in the control group. Go figure.
Look, investing is always a balance of probabilities. A calculated gamble. And sometimes, you just have to accept that you’re throwing money at a problem and hoping for the best. TD Cowen thinks it’s worth a punt at the current price. And, judging by this week’s performance, a lot of other people seem to agree. I’m still hesitant. It feels… messy. But then again, what isn’t, these days?
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2026-03-21 12:43