Ford: A Decade Hence (Or, The Persistence of Pistons)

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However, and this is where things get interesting, it hasn’t exactly set the market alight. A total return of 86% over the last decade (as of February 24th) is… respectable, in the same way a slightly damp squirrel is respectable. Compared to the S&P 500’s rather exuberant 300%, it’s more a gentle amble than a sprint. So, the question isn’t just where will Ford be in ten years, but what will it be, and will it still recognise itself?

What Remains Constant (Or, The Unchanging Nature of Things)

Predicting a decade out is a fool’s errand, of course. It’s a bit like trying to predict the weather on Mount Unseen by examining the entrails of a particularly pessimistic badger. But we can, with a degree of cautious optimism, identify the things that are likely to stubbornly not change.

Ford will, almost certainly, continue to be a significant player in the internal combustion engine game, even as the world slowly realises that relying on exploding dinosaurs for personal transport was, perhaps, not the most sustainable strategy. Currently, electric vehicles account for a mere 8% of US auto sales. That’s not to say the tide won’t turn, but it’s more of a gentle seepage than a flood. The inertia of habit, infrastructure, and a surprisingly robust aftermarket for oil changes is a powerful force.

Unfortunately, Ford’s business model and financial characteristics are likely to remain… Ford-like. Demand will continue to be cyclical, swaying with the whims of interest rates and macroeconomic forces. Profit margins will remain stubbornly low, a testament to the brutal efficiency of the automotive market. And growth? Well, let’s just say it won’t be anything to write home about, unless you happen to be writing a treatise on the art of incremental improvement.

Evolving Trends (Or, The Slow March of Progress)

The automotive industry is, let’s face it, a mature one. It’s not exactly brimming with disruptive innovation. But even the most entrenched industries are subject to the occasional tremor. Ford, to its credit, is at least attempting to anticipate the quakes.

Electric vehicles will undoubtedly gain market share. However, the recent tightening of strategy, accompanied by a $19.5 billion special charge to acknowledge that demand was… less enthusiastic than anticipated, suggests a bumpy road ahead. The focus is shifting towards hybrid models and smaller, more affordable EVs. A sensible move, perhaps, but it’s a bit like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

The company aims for half of its global volume to come from non-gas-powered cars by 2030, up from 17% today. A massive transition, certainly. Ford Model e, the company’s EV unit, is expected to be profitable by 2029. One can only hope. Historically, the operating losses have been… substantial. It’s a bit like trying to fill a bottomless pit with gold coins.

Ford Pro, the commercial and government vehicle/software division, is a bright spot, sporting a double-digit operating margin. If this segment continues to thrive, it could help smooth out Ford’s cyclical revenue streams. It’s a bit like having a reliable source of income while simultaneously juggling flaming chainsaws.

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Will Ford Outperform the S&P 500? (Or, A Question of Optimism)

The fact that investors are even contemplating Ford with a ten-year horizon is mildly encouraging. Long-term thinking is, sadly, a rare commodity in the modern financial landscape.

However, there’s precious little reason to believe Ford will break free from its established patterns and outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade. Even at a cheap valuation, the fundamental challenges remain. It’s a bit like betting on a slightly tired tortoise in a race against a cheetah.

1 The Guild of Automotive Engineers maintains that these deities are entirely mythical, a convenient excuse for inexplicable engineering failures.

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2026-02-27 19:57