Bitcoin’s October: A Modest Proposal

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My aunt Carol, who invests exclusively in commemorative plates and Beanie Babies, cornered me at Thanksgiving. “Bitcoin,” she said, pronouncing it with the suspicion one reserves for pigeons, “is it still…a thing?” I mumbled something about digital scarcity and block chains, and she handed me a slice of pecan pie, which, frankly, felt like a more stable investment.

The market, it seems, is having a similar crisis of faith. Bitcoin, after a brief, exuberant fling with $69,000, is currently experiencing what I like to call “a gentle correction.” Others are using less charitable terms. It’s down 27% this year, which, in crypto years, is roughly equivalent to a geological era. And yet, a curious faction—about 10% of the bettors on Polymarket, a site I’m now convinced is run entirely by teenagers—still believes it’ll hit $150,000 by year’s end. Bless their hearts. Or, more likely, their algorithms.

I’ve been tracking these predictions, not because I believe in them, but because I’m a shareholder in a firm that provides data analytics to a few of these crypto hopefuls. Six firms and a handful of “finance experts” (a title I use with increasing cynicism) are still touting that $150,000 figure. CoinShares, Standard Chartered, Maple Finance – all perfectly respectable names, though I suspect their analysts are fueled primarily by caffeine and desperation. They were predicting this a while ago, of course, when the narrative hadn’t yet begun to unravel.

The Skeptic’s Portfolio

Look, I’m generally bullish on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin. I see the potential, the disruptive force, the sheer, unadulterated weirdness of it all. But $150,000 this year? That feels…optimistic. I’ve spent the last decade navigating hostile takeovers and shareholder activism, and let me tell you, optimism is a liability. It clouds judgment, and it rarely aligns with quarterly reports.

The recent pullback isn’t just about crypto fatigue. It’s a symptom of a larger malaise. Tech stocks, in general, are feeling the heat. Everyone’s scrutinizing the AI spending of companies like Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft—$650 billion in capital expenditures by 2026. It’s a lot of money, even for Silicon Valley, and it’s making investors nervous. And Bitcoin, unfairly, is getting lumped into the same category. It’s like being punished for the sins of your more ambitious cousins.

Then there’s the risk appetite, which seems to be dwindling faster than my patience for conference calls. Quantum computing stocks are also taking a beating. Apparently, the future is expensive, and nobody wants to pay for it right now. It’s a perfectly rational response, really. People are starting to realize that disruptive technologies don’t always disrupt in a good way.

But the real culprit, in my opinion, is President Trump. His renewed threat of tariffs—15% on nearly everything—has thrown a wrench into everyone’s long-term planning. It’s like trying to build a sandcastle during a hurricane. The market hates uncertainty, and Trump is a master of creating it. I’ve seen this play out before, of course. It’s always the same: a flurry of pronouncements, a wave of panic, and a lot of frantic phone calls from fund managers.

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So, what does this mean for Bitcoin investors? It means that, with so much uncertainty swirling around, they’re perfectly happy to take their profits and sit on the sidelines. They’ve already ridden the wave, and they’re not eager to risk another plunge. It’s a sensible strategy, really. I’ve seen a lot of fortunes made and lost on the market, and the one constant is that greed rarely pays off in the long run.

The idea of Bitcoin rebounding to its previous high of over $126,000, let alone surpassing it, feels increasingly unlikely. Not impossible, mind you. But improbable. And in the world of finance, improbable is usually a polite way of saying “don’t bet on it.” I’m not saying Bitcoin is doomed. I’m just saying that my aunt Carol, with her commemorative plates, might actually have the more stable investment.

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2026-03-02 06:02