Shadows Over Credit, A Gathering of Fortunes

The recent tremors, it seemed, originated with the quiet failures of First Brands and Tricolor, companies whose debts had become entangled in the web of private credit. These were not spectacular collapses, not the kind that shatter glass and fill headlines, but rather a slow, insidious unraveling that cast a pall over the entire sector. Blue Owl, a manager particularly exposed, felt the first chill, and the anxieties spread like a fever dream, reaching even the polished towers of Brookfield, Blackstone, and KKR. Their shares, once symbols of relentless growth, began to retreat, falling by as much as 43.5% from their recent peaks, a decline that smelled of something more than mere market correction. Brookfield, the most resilient, still bore the mark of the downturn, off by a substantial 22%. But within this perceived misfortune, I saw not ruin, but an opportunity—a chance to acquire a stake in these formidable institutions at a price that belied their true worth.





