A year turns over, and a stock with Tesla (TSLA +0.80%) feels the weight of it more than most. It’s a curious thing, this company. A factory humming, a promise of futures, and a share price that dances on the wind. Before we try to read the tea leaves, let’s look back a spell. A year ago, things stood a certain way.
Back then, through nearly two decades, Tesla hadn’t known a year of shrinking sales. Yet, the books were hinting at a 3% dip for the last cycle. The Model S and X, once bright flags, were being gently retired, making room for those metal men, the robots. Elon Musk, a voice in the halls of power, moved on, and a bill threatened the tax break that eased the burden for those buying electric. Full Self-Driving, a dream sold by the month, replaced the one-time purchase. The Cybertruck, a rough-hewn beast, promised much, but accounted for only a sliver of what rolled off the lines alongside the soon-to-be-gone Model S and X.
The Wheel Turns
And then, a twist. Despite a tumble in car sales—a 10% drop—and profits shrinking by 60%, the stock itself climbed 16% over the past year. A peculiar thing, indeed. It beats the market, this restless creature.
Can it keep rising? Analysts, bless their hearts, are scattered like seeds in the wind. Some see a bottom as low as $125, others a peak at $600. The average guess? $421.73, a mere tick upwards. It’s unlikely Tesla will simply stand still. That’s not in its nature.
Lost in the slowing of car sales, Tesla’s overall income only dipped 3%. The strength came not from the road, but from elsewhere. Energy generation and storage rose 25%. Services and other ventures climbed 18%. A company shifting its weight, finding new ground.
New things are brewing. The Cybercab will begin rolling out in April. The Fremont plant, once home to the Model S and Y, will soon be filled with the metal bones of the Optimus robots. A change of purpose, a turning of the gears.
Despite the end of tax breaks and a cooling in the fervor for electric vehicles, analysts predict Tesla’s income will rise 9% in the coming year. It will finally break through the $100 billion mark in sales. Profitability will grow even faster. Wider margins amidst new ventures? A rare sight.
Tesla has always been valued as something more than a carmaker. It’s a gamble on the future. If the coming year belongs to robotics, to breakthroughs in self-driving, to high-margin opportunities, then the stock will dance. It will be volatile, yes, but Tesla has a habit of surprising those who think they’ve measured its stride. It is a restless thing, this company, and like all restless things, it carries a certain beauty, and a certain danger.
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2026-02-19 19:42