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It is easy to forget that ChatGPT, for all its initial impact, is an upstart. It challenged the established order, and for a time, enjoyed a period of rapid growth. But the hyperscalers, those behemoths of the digital age, are not easily displaced. Their size, profitability, and established ‘moats’ – those barriers to entry – are formidable. The initial disruption is impressive, but sustaining it is another matter entirely.
Like Nvidia in the chip business, OpenAI now finds itself facing significant competition. This competition will inevitably put pressure on margins and market share. Not all first movers succeed. OpenAI will require substantial funding to maintain its AI infrastructure commitments, and reports suggest a $100 billion funding round is in the works. An initial public offering may follow.
Gemini’s growth does not signal ‘checkmate’ for ChatGPT, but it does make the path forward considerably more difficult. The real question is not who ‘wins’ this particular contest, but what it reveals about the future of technology. It is a reminder that innovation, while often presented as a romantic endeavor, is ultimately a business. And in business, power tends to concentrate in the hands of those who already possess it.
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2026-02-15 14:52