Lemonade. A name suggesting refreshment, but dealing in the anxieties of fire, flood, and untimely demise. They’re trying to sell insurance with chatbots, which is… something. They’ve tripled their customer base since 2020, going from a million souls to nearly three million. So it goes.
They started with the usual homeowner and renter stuff, then branched out. Life, pets, cars. More things to insure, more premiums collected. They want ten billion in premiums “in the coming years.” Ambition. It’s a lovely thing, really. A sort of desperate hope dressed up as a business plan.
Analysts predict a 42% revenue jump between now and 2027. Positive earnings, eventually. A five-billion-dollar valuation. Seems reasonable, if you believe in the future. But they’re still losing money, and the big boys are waking up. Everyone wants a piece of the anxiety pie. So it goes.
Chubb: The Old Guard
Look, you can chase the shiny new thing, the disruption, the AI. Or you can stick with something… solid. Chubb. It used to be ACE Limited, but branding is a game, isn’t it? They insure everything, everywhere. A Swiss company. Neutral. Like Switzerland itself. Which is a good thing, when the world is constantly threatening to burst into flames.
Their combined ratio is a respectable 85.7%. Meaning they’re good at taking in more money than they pay out. Which, let’s be honest, is the whole point. They’re also upgrading their AI, because everyone has to pretend to be on the cutting edge, even if they’ve been doing this for a century. They generate about forty-three times Lemonade’s revenue. Numbers. They tell a story, if you’re willing to listen.
They don’t tell you how many customers they have, because frankly, who needs to know? They’re profitable. Revenue will grow, slowly, at around 5%. Earnings per share, up 6%. The stock is a bargain at twelve times earnings, a dividend of 1.2%, and they’ve bought back 15% of their shares. It’s… sensible. In a world desperately lacking in sense. So it goes.
Look, I trade in probabilities. And while Lemonade could keep growing, the odds feel… stacked. Chubb is the safe bet. The boring bet. The bet that most people will probably make, eventually. And that, my friends, is a tragedy. But also, just… reality. So it goes.
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2026-02-09 19:13