Space Hustle: Rockets & Radio Waves

The air smells of burnt money and broken promises. They tell you there’s a gold rush happening up there, in the black velvet, a trillion-dollar bonanza just waiting to be plucked from the void. McKinsey, those impeccably suited statisticians of the apocalypse, say so. $1.8 TRILLION by 2035. Right. Like we’re going to trust them. Still, the static is getting louder, the signals are… intriguing. Two outfits are currently wrestling for a piece of this cosmic pie: Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both promising the moon, naturally. Or, more accurately, a reliable cell signal while you’re standing on it. Let’s dissect this madness, shall we?

Rocket Lab, the marginally more grounded of the two, is trying to undercut the SpaceX empire with smaller, more frequent launches. They’ve managed 81 launches so far, which is… something. A respectable number for a company fueled by sheer audacity and venture capital. Their Electron rocket is the workhorse, hauling tiny payloads into orbit. But the real game-changer, they say, is Neutron. A bigger, badder rocket designed to carry… well, more stuff. A lot more. If it ever actually gets off the ground. They were aiming for this quarter. Now? Who the hell knows. The timeline is shifting like sand in a hurricane.

They also dabble in space systems, building components for other people’s missions. A diversified portfolio of delusion, if you ask me. They’ve got a backlog of over a billion dollars in contracts. Which is fantastic, until you realize how easily things can go sideways in this business. One exploding rocket, one software glitch, and that backlog turns into a pile of smoking debris.

Then there’s AST SpaceMobile. These guys are attempting to build a constellation of satellites that will beam cell service directly to your phone. No special hardware, no complicated apps. Just… connectivity. It sounds like science fiction, and frankly, it feels like a fever dream. They’ve snagged deals with AT&T and Verizon, which is either a sign of genius or a colossal waste of corporate cash. They’re talking about 45-60 BlueBird satellites by 2026. Ninety eventually. A web of orbiting antennas, watching us all. It’s… unsettling. And they just landed a $43 million contract with the Space Development Agency. The military is involved. OF COURSE the military is involved.

The Long Con

Here’s the cold, hard truth: neither of these companies is making a profit. Not yet. Analysts are predicting Rocket Lab might stumble into profitability around 2027. AST SpaceMobile? 2028, if they’re lucky. That’s years of burning cash, of relying on the whims of investors, of praying to the silicon gods. Revenue projections are… optimistic, to say the least. Rocket Lab could hit $1.5 billion by 2028, up from $600 million in 2025. AST SpaceMobile is aiming for $1.94 billion. Numbers dancing in the void. I’ve seen this movie before. It usually ends badly.

AST SpaceMobile is still struggling to get its satellites into orbit. Rocket Lab is facing delays with Neutron. Everything is tentative, fragile, dependent on a million things going right. And in this business, a million things always go wrong. They’re building castles in the sky, fueled by hype and hope. And we, the public, are being asked to fund the construction.

If I had to pick one, if someone held a gun to my head and demanded a choice, I’d reluctantly go with Rocket Lab. At least they’re generating some revenue. They’ve got a slightly more established track record. But it’s a slim margin. A desperate gamble. Both of these companies are riding the wave of the space economy, and that wave could crash at any moment. They’re key players, sure, but in a game rigged from the start. Don’t mistake motion for progress. Don’t mistake hype for value. And for God’s sake, don’t believe everything you read.

2026-02-06 15:32

The Long Con

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