Rigetti: A Quantum Hope, a Dusty Road

Rigetti Computing, they call it. A name that whispers of possibilities, of bending the very rules of calculation. It’s one of the few building their own machines, forging the silicon and chasing the ghost in the wires. A good thing, perhaps, in a world hungry for what comes next. But a man can’t build a future on whispers alone.

The Waiting

The company carries a weight of expectation, a market value north of five billion dollars. A considerable sum. Yet, when you sift through the numbers, the last twelve months show a mere seven and a half million in sales. It’s like staking a claim on a gold mine and finding only dust. Investors are betting on a harvest years away, a yield that may never come. They’re pricing in dreams, and dreams, as any weathered farmer will tell you, are a fickle crop.

A recent study from MIT, a place that knows a thing or two about the future, suggests that the kind of widespread use that justifies such a valuation is a long way off. Decades, they say. Morningstar echoes the sentiment. General-purpose quantum computing, they claim, is still two decades distant. Two decades is a lifetime in this business, a geological age in the world of technology. It’s enough time for fortunes to be built and lost, for promises to bloom and wither.

A Hard Look at the Field

Strange things have happened, of course. The world is full of surprises, of leaps and bounds that defy prediction. But to count on a quantum revolution from Rigetti, or any of these pure-play companies, anytime soon… well, it feels like hoping for rain in a desert. It’s a gamble, and a man should know his odds.

And along the way, this company, like so many others chasing the future, will need to find more money. Money that will likely come at a cost to those who believed early. Dilution, they call it. A slow erosion of ownership. I suspect there are better places to put your dollars, opportunities that offer a reasonable return without the weight of such a distant hope. Alphabet, for instance. A company already building the roads and the infrastructure for whatever comes next. A solid foundation, and a man can sleep easier knowing his house is built on stone, not sand.

2026-02-06 10:32

The Waiting

A Hard Look at the Field

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