The Oracle of Omaha, that sage of capital and chance, once whispered: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” A fine sentiment, though one wonders if Mr. Buffett ever considered the peculiar alchemy of Wall Street, where fear and greed are but twin masks worn by the same capricious demon.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN), that modern Icarus with its wings of lithium and carbon fiber, now trades at a valuation that might make a bankruptcy attorney blush. Its market cap has shriveled from $150 billion to $18 billion-a carcass picked clean by vultures in pinstripes. Yet here we find ourselves, staring at a company that builds electric trucks for customers who apparently prefer to order them rather than actually purchase them.
The Devil’s Dividend
In 2021, the EV market resembled a bacchanal hosted by Woland himself, with investors drinking champagne from the skulls of dead internal combustion engines. Rivian soared, a phoenix reborn in ticker tape. But the revelry ended. Now the company staggers through the financial wilderness, its growth rates limping like a wounded gazelle pursued by a pride of skeptical analysts.
“The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down,” Buffett allegedly declared. A noble philosophy-for those who mistake the stock market for a salvage yard. Rivian’s three forthcoming “affordable” models, due in 2026, are touted as the cavalry charging over the hill. Yet one recalls the words of Pontius Pilate: “What is truth?” When Tesla launched its affordable models, the heavens opened and revenue rained down. When Rivian does the same, will the desert bloom, or will the sand swallow these promises whole?
Consider the price-to-sales ratio: lower than Tesla’s, lower than Lucid’s. A bargain, perhaps, or a warning etched in financial hieroglyphs. Buffett’s ghost hovers above this graveyard of inflated valuations, murmuring about “margin of safety.” Meanwhile, the bulls sharpen their pitchforks, ready to impale the next earnings report like a marionette in a macabre puppet show.
Contrarian wisdom? Or the delusion of a gambler who believes the roulette wheel must eventually favor red? The stage is set. The actors wear their masks. As for the audience-we watch, sip our wine, and await the curtain’s fall. 🎭
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2025-09-30 23:56