Bitcoin’s Big Dip: When Will It Peak? 🚀📈

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The 4-year Cycle

If you’ve been active in the crypto markets for a while, you’ve likely heard of the “4-year cycle.” It’s one of the most well-known patterns in Bitcoin’s history, and so far, it has proven to be remarkably accurate. Typically, this cycle consists of roughly three years of upward price movement followed by one year of decline.

As shown in the chart above, each green box highlights the three-year period of upward price movement, while the red box marks the one-year correction phase. Currently, we’re approaching the end of the green box, suggesting that if Bitcoin continues to follow the traditional 4-year cycle, we may be nearing a market top.

According to the Bitcoin 4-year cycle counter, we’re currently nearing the end of the third year. As we enter the red zone on the counter, we move into the potential topping phase, the period where a bull market peak becomes increasingly likely, assuming Bitcoin continues to follow its historical cycle.

The 4-year cycle points to October 2025 – December 2025 for the potential top.

Where Could Bitcoin Top?

To know where Bitcoin might be topping this cycle, we need to have a look at how it behaved in previous cycles.

In the 2017 cycle, we reached a Fibonacci extension based on the previous cycle high to the bear market low, of 227% which was a level of $15,723. We overshot that target slightly by tapping $19,000.

In 2021, we’ve reached the 161.8% level, also known as the golden ratio. This is the most important Fibonacci ratio.

In 2025, if we see a similar move, going into the golden ratio, that would bring the Bitcoin price to $153,921 around the end of 2025. This is a potential projection based on the 4-year cycle combined with Fibonacci extension levels, which have proven significance in the past.

So Will Bitcoin Go Straight To This Target?

Most likely, no. While Bitcoin is known for its 4-year cycles, there are also smaller patterns at play, most notably the 60-day cycle. These are short-term cycles that typically span around 60 days. Between now and the end of the year, we can still expect several 60-day cycle lows, which often coincide with sharp corrections or liquidation events. These dips tend to shake out weak hands before the price continues moving higher.

Currently, we are in the later phase of the 60-day cycle, expecting a new low to form around early August before we can start a new cycle count again.

Conclusion: A Probable Top, But Not a Straight Line

Bitcoin’s current trajectory suggests we’re entering the later stages of the 4-year cycle, with historical data pointing to a potential market top between October and December 2025. Based on previous cycles and Fibonacci extensions, a price target near $153,000 is possible if history repeats itself and Bitcoin continues to follow the 4-year cycle.

However, the path to that potential peak is unlikely to be in a straight line. Shorter-term cycles, like the 60-day cycle, will continue to create volatility, corrections, and liquidation events along the way. These dips are natural in bull markets and often serve to reset market sentiment before pushing higher.

In short, the top may still be ahead, but patience, timing, and risk management are essential. If Bitcoin continues to follow its cyclical behavior, the final phase of this bull run could be both exciting and turbulent.

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2025-07-19 20:34