You Won’t Believe How Blockchain Valuation Models Became a Carnival of Absurdity 🎪

What to know:

Valuing a blockchain network in our era feels eerily reminiscent of pondering why Pontius Pilate can’t sleep. The 1990s internet entered with announcement trumpets and stock valuations loftier than the imagination of a Muscovite playwright. Analysts and investors peered at the thing, blinked, and decided that “eyeballs” were the new coin of the realm. Frankly, a million pageviews were valued as if each one performed three miracles and paid rent in gold.

You can guess where that ended: with spectacular implosions, awkward silences, and very sober breakfasts. The ghosts of Pets.com and eToys still haunt us, whispering that “user growth” alone won’t make your company immortal (nor will a sock puppet with a megaphone, but it did try valiantly).

And now—enter the blockchain, trailing the same confusion and awe. Adoption surges, the crowds gather, but the valuation models remain as unsatisfying as a hastily poured glass of vodka: sometimes strong, sometimes watered-down, consistently questionable.

An Internet Bubble So Inflated It Floated Over Patriarch’s Ponds

Picture it: the internet’s frontier. No one has a clue whether digital companies are alchemists or madmen, so the investment village scribes count whatever they can see—clicks, views, money spent on plush mascots. “Eyeballs,” they chant, “Eyeballs to the moon!” Only later does someone realize that all these eyeballs eat nothing and pay for less, and suddenly the revelry gives way to a bonfire of dot-com vanities, roasted on a spit and seasoned with regret.

The Purge (2001-2005): When Even the Devil Demanded Receipts

After the bubble burst, sobriety set in. Investors wanted to see real profits, not just illusion. Spreadsheets became more sacred than the Book of Revelation. Amazon, bruised and battered, dragged itself toward profitability, clinging to revenue growth and margins like Ivan to his apartment keys. And oh, eBay! The marketplace where Muscovite housewives met global commerce, and the business model was so clear even Behemoth would approve. The rest were swept away like dust after a good spring storm.

SaaS: The Era of the Subscription—A Bureaucrat’s Paradise

As Chronicles moved into the mid-2000s, the prophets of SaaS appeared. Now, instead of unpredictable sales, you could sell magical software subscriptions—monthly, annually, as if ordering bread and kvass. Metrics emerged: ARR, CAC, LTV. Each calculation announced with the gravity of a fat tabby cat appearing on a chessboard. The Rule of 40 supplanted the Rule of Faith; churn and retention were debated in smoky offices like the fate of Margarita herself.

The Reign of Platforms and Their Equally Crowded Balls (2015-Present)

By the time Facebook and Google arrive, valuations are all about network effects. The more guests at the ball, the more magical the party. Ecosystem, plug-ins, engagement—words that echo through boardrooms like the mysterious footsteps of an invisible Master. No one knows quite what they mean, but fortunes are wagered on their power.

Modern Times: Where AI Is the New Black Magic

Now, it’s not just about growth, but about efficiency, free cash flow, and moats made not of water, but artificial intelligence and proprietary spreadsheets. Each tech sector invents its own secret handshake. “Rule of 40,” says the chorus, and the uninitiated nod approvingly, none the wiser.

Blockchains: The Bazhov Crystal Ball Remains Cloudy, Comrades

And so, blockchains trudge on, pursued by analysts bearing DCF models like silver bullets at a vampire convention. None quite work. Blockchains aren’t companies—they’re more like spectral infrastructures, haunted and explained less by profit than by mysterious flows of value and trust. Like government subsidies hidden behind red curtains, token emissions inflate numbers, but leave one with the aftertaste of plotka at sunrise.

Models abound: MSOV (“How much gold is under the mattress?”), Onchain GDP (“How many invisible potatoes are grown inside our protocol this year?”)—all clever, but flawed.

A Daring Proposal: Valuing Motion, Not Dust

Let’s put aside useless metrics and focus on movement! Velocity! Flow! It’s like measuring the health of a city not by how many citizens snooze in the park, but how many dash for the tram when it arrives. With blockchains, we begin to count:

• Stablecoin velocity (not unlike Moscow’s metro at rush hour!)
• DeFi racket: lending, trading, the odd back-alley collateralization
• NFT trading—art, apes, and the occasional rug pull
• Layer-to-layer exchanges: like smuggling chocolate from one city to another
• Tokenization of “real” assets, because apparently someone somewhere wants to put their house on the blockchain for reasons known only to the Devil himself
• The exciting spectacle of collateral and fees darting around like Margarita on a moonlit flight

Here, we’re not just counting piles of tokens, but watching for life, hustle, and outlandish economic gymnastics. If value is where motion is, then a truly vibrant chain is more alive than the bureaucrat’s heart after payday.

The Epilogue No Investor Asked For

The internet’s history—an endless spiral of invention, ruination, and new metrics forged in backrooms—shows us that each age gets the valuation model it deserves. Blockchains are still waiting for theirs. The only certainty is that the next paradigm will probably show up wearing a fake mustache, promising riches, and reminding everyone that the real magic wasn’t in the models, but in the movement all along.

So, comrades, watch where the money flows. Ignore the men behind the curtain—unless he’s a giant cat. Then, at least hear him out. 🐾

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2025-06-17 22:05