York Space: A Broken IPO, or Just Expensive?

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My Aunt Mildred, God bless her, decided last year she was going to invest in space. Not, you understand, by becoming an astronaut, but by buying stock. She’d seen a documentary about Elon Musk, and now everything, in her mind, was connected to rockets and potential riches. I tried to explain the difference between a viable business and a shiny object, but it’s like explaining the offside rule to a particularly stubborn dachshund. Which brings me to York Space Systems (YSS 9.24%). They just had an IPO, and I suspect Aunt Mildred is somewhere, furiously clicking “buy.”

The initial offering was supposed to be around $30-$34 a share. Demand, apparently, was…enthusiastic. They ended up selling at the high end, $34, and for a brief, shimmering moment, the stock traded even higher, hitting $38.10. It felt…optimistic. Then reality, as it often does, set in. By the close of the day, York was trading below the IPO price, and as of this writing, it’s still there, hovering around $33.95. A broken IPO? Possibly. Or just…expensive.

What Exactly Is York Space Systems?

Honestly, before researching this, I hadn’t a clue. It’s not a company that rolls off the tongue like, say, Coca-Cola or even Blockbuster (rest in peace). They build satellites. Military satellites, mostly. Apparently, they have three sizes: S-CLASS (small, like a particularly grumpy chihuahua), LX-CLASS (medium, maybe a golden retriever), and M-CLASS (large, approaching hippopotamus). They’ve launched 33 satellites into orbit, and claim they can build over 1,000 a year. That’s a lot of satellites. It’s enough to make you wonder if they’re planning to wallpaper the sky.

The U.S. Space Force is their primary customer. Substantially all of their revenue, they admit, comes from the Space Development Agency. This is…a double-edged sword. It’s nice to have a guaranteed buyer, but it also means they’re entirely reliant on government contracts. Imagine if the government decided that, actually, they didn’t need quite so many satellites. York’s prospectus warns as much, which is either honesty or a remarkably transparent admission of vulnerability. They also participate in the Golden Dome missile defense program, which sounds like something out of a particularly ambitious Bond film.

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Show Me the Money

Let’s talk numbers. York is aiming for a $140 billion market by 2028. Ambitious. Their estimated sales for 2025? Around $387.8 million. Losses for the year could exceed $90 million. They have $415.5 million in debt. Cash is burning. Through the first three quarters of the year, they lost $88.2 million in operating cash flow, and another $15.4 million in investing activities. Not a pretty picture. It reminds me of my cousin Gary’s attempt to start a dog-walking business. He spent more on leashes and poop bags than he earned in actual walking fees.

However, sales climbed over 50% between 2024 and 2025. Losses are shrinking. Growth rates are stellar. Which brings us back to the question of valuation.

Should You Buy York Space Systems Stock?

York currently trades at a $4.2 billion valuation. That’s 11.6 times price-to-sales. For an unprofitable space stock? That’s…generous. Triple my fair value estimate, in fact. I suspect the stock has further to fall. If you’re determined to own it, I suspect you’ll get a better price eventually. I’m not buying, at least not yet. I’m content to watch from the sidelines, like a sensible person observing a particularly chaotic game of musical chairs.

And as for Aunt Mildred? I’m bracing myself for a long conversation about risk tolerance and the difference between a rocket and a return on investment.

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2026-02-04 13:32