Yield and the Weight of Years

by

The pursuit of income in these markets feels, increasingly, like a quiet desperation. One searches for solidity, for a return that isn’t merely a phantom conjured by recent enthusiasm. The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM +2.29%) and the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL +1.33%) offer two paths, each with its own peculiar blend of promise and, inevitably, disappointment. VYM, the broader net, casts wide, while NOBL, with its insistence on a quarter-century of dividend increases, clings to a past that may or may not predict the future.

Both are designed, of course, to provide a stream of income, a small bulwark against the rising cost of simply existing. But the details, as always, reveal a more complicated story. The difference isn’t merely numerical; it’s a matter of temperament, of how one views the inherent fragility of even the most established enterprises.

A Matter of Cost and Scale

Metric VYM NOBL
Issuer Vanguard ProShares
Expense ratio 0.06% 0.35%
1-yr return (as of 2026-01-30) 12.7% 6.6%
Dividend yield 2.3% 2.0%
Beta 0.76 0.83
AUM $84.6 billion $11.5 billion

The expense ratio, a seemingly minor detail, speaks volumes. VYM’s frugality is a small mercy, a recognition that every fraction of a percentage point eroded is a piece of one’s future quietly disappearing. NOBL’s higher cost feels less like a calculated fee and more like a toll levied for the comfort of believing in a consistent, if perhaps illusory, upward trajectory.

Performance and the Illusion of Control

Metric VYM NOBL
Max drawdown (5 y) -15.83% -17.92%
Growth of $1,000 over 5 years $1,636 $1,396

The numbers, of course, tell a story, but a story always filtered through the lens of hindsight. A five-year growth projection feels both significant and utterly insufficient when contemplating the decades that may lie ahead. The market, like life, rarely adheres to neat calculations.

Inside the Portfolios: A Study in Emphasis

NOBL’s focus on companies with a long history of dividend increases is, on the surface, a sensible strategy. It’s a search for stability in a world that offers precious little of it. Yet, concentrating on just seventy stocks—Sysco, C.H. Robinson, Colgate-Palmolive—feels less like prudent diversification and more like a desperate clinging to a dwindling number of familiar names. The insistence on equal weighting, while admirable in theory, can only mask the underlying vulnerability for so long.

VYM, with its 589 holdings, offers a broader canvas. The larger positions in financial services and technology—Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, ExxonMobil—reflect the realities of the modern economy. It’s a more chaotic landscape, certainly, but perhaps a more honest one. The concentration at the top, however, introduces its own risks, a reminder that even diversification has its limits.

For those seeking further guidance, one can consult various guides, but ultimately, the decisions remain one’s own, and the weight of those decisions rests heavily on the shoulders.

The Unfolding Narrative

Both VYM and NOBL offer a path toward income, but neither guarantees a future free from worry. NOBL appeals to those who crave the illusion of control, the comfort of knowing that a company has consistently rewarded its shareholders for decades. Its lower volatility is a balm for anxious spirits, but its higher cost and limited diversification are undeniable drawbacks.

VYM, with its lower expense ratio and broader reach, offers a more pragmatic approach. Its exposure to the technology sector has recently fueled strong returns, but that same sector introduces a degree of volatility that some may find unsettling. The lack of a strict dividend growth criterion raises questions about its long-term sustainability.

In the end, the choice depends on one’s temperament, one’s tolerance for risk, and one’s willingness to accept the inherent uncertainties of the market. Perhaps the most sensible approach is to acknowledge that there are no easy answers, and that even the most carefully crafted investment strategy is ultimately subject to the whims of fate. The market continues, indifferent to our hopes and anxieties, and the years pass, leaving us to ponder the choices we’ve made and the paths we haven’t taken.

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2026-02-07 19:42