XRP Drops Below $3 as Bets Fade and Whales Disperse

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The XRP price, like a weary clerk at a provincial desk, drifts again near the edge of the three-dollar threshold, hovering about $2.80-$2.83 after another feeble attempt to reclaim the barrier. In a room lit by the hum of a ceiling fan and the distant clink of coins, one whispers that fortune is merely a stubborn idea, and the idea, as usual, is late. 😂🤷‍♂️

In derivatives, momentum has cooled as futures open interest sinks to roughly $8.85 billion after flirting with $9 billion, and the liquidation ledger shows the strain on bulls-over $11 million in long positions erased in a single day versus about $2.4 million for shorts. A theatrical turn where the applause goes to the bears, with a sly smile from the balcony.

With RSI hovering in the high-30s/low-40s on shorter time frames and MACD leaning negative, the setup favors consolidation or further downside unless spot demand suddenly reappears like a dependable servant at the door.

On-Chain Flows Turn Risk-Off as XRP Whales Distribute

Under the hood, the drama is defensive. Exchange data shows more than 320 million XRP moved onto centralized venues in the past week, pushing exchange reserves toward nine-month highs-a sort of coin‑pocket in retreat, as if holders are bracing for a final farewell sale.

Similarly, whale cohorts (1-10 million XRP) have distributed about 440 million tokens over 30 days, adding supply to a soft, tired tablecloth of markets.

BNB has overtaken XRP for the No. 3 market-cap slot amid record BNB Chain activity, while the uncertainty around U.S. spot ETF timelines keeps XRP’s macro catalysts murky. Until those headwinds clear or outflows reverse, rallies into resistance meet the same old chorus of supply.

Key Levels to Watch for the XRP Price: $2.68 or $3.15 Decide the Next Leg

Technically, XRP is compressing inside a descending triangle, making $2.68-$2.70 the pivotal shelf. Veteran traders warn that a weekly close below $2.687 could open a measured move toward $2.22 (roughly -20% from current prices). The stage is set, and the actors are wary, as if the curtain might fall at any ominous moment.

Immediate resistance sits at $2.92-$3.00; above that, $3.15 is the line that would invalidate the bearish pattern and shift targets to $3.60-$4.50. A joke about fate, perhaps, but fate loves a good chart.

In the near term, watch for:

  • Spot-led bids and declining funding on bounces (healthier than leverage-driven pops). 😏
  • Exchange reserve inflections (a downturn would ease sell pressure). 🧾
  • Open interest rebuilding without overcrowded longs. 🧭

With futures interest easing and whales distributing, risk remains skewed to the downside while XRP holds below $3.00. Bulls need a clean, high-volume reclaim of $3.00-$3.15 to flip momentum; otherwise, a $2.70 retest, and potentially $2.22 on a breakdown, stays in play. A quiet lamp, a stubborn coin, and a room full of people pretending not to notice the obvious.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD on Tradingview

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2025-10-10 07:15