Why TMC Shares Tanked Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Mineral Mysteries

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TMC The Metals Company (TMC) — or as I secretly call it, “The Company That Might Just Mine Its Way to the Moon” — took a nosedive last week, plunging by a startling 24.8%. Frankly, it was one of those spectacular crashes that makes you clutch your coffee and wonder if your entire investment life is a grand game of roulette. The cause? The usual suspects: geopolitics, fluctuating hopes, and an unhealthy obsession with seabed mining.

If I had a penny for every time a geopolitical development caused my portfolio to wobble, I’d be writing this from a sunlit beach, not hunched over a laptop contemplating the latest market chaos. Last week’s plunge seemed tied to some sort of international game of poker—only everyone’s bluffing, and no one really knows the hands being played. The US made a surprising move: lifting technology export restrictions on high-performance semiconductors and chipmaking tech, ostensibly to give Huawei a boost or perhaps to spice up negotiations with China. But for TMC, this was more like watching a ship veer perilously close to rocky shores — not good, especially since seabed minerals are, I’ve come to understand, kind of the company’s raison d’être.

Charts and Chagrin: Why the Price Sank

On July 28, the news dropped like an anvil—no more license restrictions on sales of AI processors and semiconductor tools to China. While trade negotiations are often described as “a delicate dance,” this felt more like a stumble: lot of stumbling forward, lots of confused ankle-twisting, and possibly some very private groans. The US seems to equate securing access to China’s rare earth minerals with much the same gravity as national security, which means… well, it’s complicated. For TMC, this complexity is a welcome, if slightly terrifying, backdrop to their ambitious seabed dreams.

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Despite the recent bloodbath, TMC’s stock is still up a staggering 424% so far this year. Quite the rollercoaster, and honestly, I sometimes wonder if I should just throw my money at rollercoaster rides because they seem to be more predictable than these geopolitical chess matches. The Trump administration’s focus on ramping up U.S. mineral harvesting rights has clearly been a major tailwind—probably because we all secretly prefer our minerals domestically sourced, like a good cup of tea rather than hidden in some clandestine Chinese vault. Still, every trade pact has its caveats, and uncertainty like a clingy ex just won’t leave the investor’s mind alone.

And What Comes Next? A Sea of Possibilities

Flashback to April: President Trump, in a rare show of bureaucratic optimism, signed an executive order to fast-track seabed mining permits. TMC, ever eager, threw their hat in the ring shortly after, submitting applications with the ferocity of a teenager trying to get into the coolest club. On paper, a trade agreement might ease the urgency—no more frenzied permits, no more shoulder-shrugging at the regulatory thicket. But in reality, the push to secure our own minerals within U.S. borders continues to look like the government’s favorite new hobby, right after collecting rare coins and knitting sweaters for cats.

So I sit here, contemplating the big picture—will TMC be the next big thing, the tech unicorn of seabed mining? Or just another cautionary tale in the enterprise of chasing elusive minerals beneath the ocean’s surface? Either way, it’s clear that whether relations thaw or simmer, the drive to harness our own treasures remains a significant part of the national narrative. I can’t help but wonder if I should also start mining for patience—my most valuable asset in these turbulent times. 🧭

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2025-08-05 05:57