In the great cosmic ballet of airline economics, where planes occasionally remember to fly but rarely remember to be profitable, Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) has somehow found itself in possession of a 13% share-price boost midday Thursday. This is the sort of jump usually reserved for startups promising to mine asteroids or sell bottled Martian atmosphere. The culprit? Rival Spirit Airlines’ ongoing existential crisis, which has now included not one but two bankruptcies this year-a feat previously thought achievable only by poorly managed Shakespearean tragedies.
Spirit sinking
Frontier, the ultra-low-cost carrier that makes Ryanair’s “no-frills” model look positively luxurious, operates in a niche so specific it might as well be a parallel universe where legroom is a myth and snacks cost $12. Its closest competitor, Spirit Airlines, was co-founded by Frontier’s current board chair, Bill Franke, which is a bit like having a chess opponent who keeps rebuilding the board mid-game.
Spirit’s recent trajectory resembles a poorly scripted rollercoaster: agreed to be acquired by Frontier in 2022, then by JetBlue, then blocked by regulators, then bankrupt, then briefly un-bankrupt, then-*poof*-bankrupt again last week. It’s the financial equivalent of a cat video that somehow got a Nobel Prize nomination.
Enter Deutsche Bank’s Michael Linenberg, who apparently enjoys a good underdog story. He upgraded Frontier to “buy,” noting that 35% of its routes overlap with Spirit’s (a number set to rise to 40% as Frontier expands). This is the aviation equivalent of two DJs playing the same song simultaneously, except one keeps losing power mid-set.
Is Frontier stock a buy?
The plot thickens faster than Spirit’s bankruptcy filings. Rumors swirl that Frontier might swoop in again to acquire what’s left of Spirit’s operations, which would be like inviting a fox to audit the henhouse-except the fox is holding a spreadsheet and the henhouse is on fire.
Risks abound, of course. Discount airlines are to economic downturns what vampires are to sunlight: utterly incompatible. A single sneeze in the macroeconomic climate could send ULCC’s stock spiraling like a grounded 747 in a hurricane. Yet Frontier remains a well-capitalized operation with a growth plan so ambitious it includes adding routes “to the Moon and back” (pending FAA approval and sufficient lunar demand for $99 one-way tickets).
In the grand tapestry of airline investing, Frontier is the thread that glitters dangerously-a high-risk, high-reward proposition wrapped in a riddle, served with a side of peanuts you have to pay for. For those with a diversified portfolio and a taste for cosmic absurdity, it might just be the right kind of madness. (But maybe keep a parachute handy.)
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2025-09-02 20:49