Why Bitcoin’s $12B Expiry Might Be More Snooze Than Boom! 😴💸

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What to know:

  • Come Friday, a mountain of bitcoin options, worth billions, is ready to expire on Deribit. But hold your horses, folks—no wild market rodeo is expected.
  • We’re talking over 139,000 BTC option contracts, which is nearly 45% of the total active BTC contracts. That’s a lot of paper, but where’s the fire? 🔥
  • Even with this hefty expiry, indicators like the bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index and the annualized perpetual futures basis are whispering sweet nothings about calm waters ahead.

As the clock ticks down to Friday, the world of bitcoin (BTC) options is gearing up for a grand spectacle on Deribit. But don’t get your popcorn ready just yet; the exchange is betting on a snooze fest instead of a market shake-up, as they told CoinDesk.

With more than 139,000 BTC option contracts worth a staggering $12.13 billion on the line, you might think the world would be on the edge of its seat. But alas, it seems the only thing to settle might be your lunch. 🍔

A whopping 65% of the open interest is nestled in call options, giving buyers a taste of that sweet bullish exposure, while the rest is tucked away in put options, just in case the sky falls. 🐔

Usually, such massive expiries bring a storm of market volatility, but this time, the signs point to a gentle breeze. The bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index has taken a dip from an annualized 62% to a cozy 48% as we approach the expiry. It’s like the market is saying, “Meh.”

And if that wasn’t enough to put you to sleep, the annualized perpetual futures basis is lounging around at about 5%, suggesting a nice, calm funding environment. Who knew finance could be so… relaxing?

“Despite the size of the expiry, the overall setup—low DVOL, moderate basis, and balanced options positioning—points to a relatively subdued expiry unless external catalysts emerge,” said Luuk Strijers, the CEO of Deribit, clearly channeling his inner oracle.

Some downside hedging seen

The options skew, that quirky little indicator that measures the difference between implied volatility for calls and puts, reveals some folks are a bit jittery as Friday approaches. But hey, who isn’t? 😅

Still, the overall outlook is like a sunny day at the beach—constructive, if not a little sandy.

“3-Day Put-Call Skew is Slightly Positive, indicating some immediate downside protection demand while 30-Day Put-Call Skew is slightly Negative, indicating a more bullish outlook over the medium term,” Strijers shared, probably while sipping a piña colada.

And let’s not forget, also expiring on Friday are ether (ETH) options worth a cool $2.8 billion. Because why not add more to the mix? 🎉

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2025-03-25 16:22