Why Bitcoin Might Be Ready to Hit a New All-Time High (Again)

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Key Takeaways:

  • The US Treasury saw $19 billion in inflows last week, the highest since March 2023, as the 30-year yield took a 30-basis-point dive. A bit of a rollercoaster, eh?

  • Foreign central banks are trimming their US Treasury holdings to a 22-year low of 23%, while gold reserves climb to 18%—shiny, right?

  • Remember how Bitcoin went from $9,000 to $60,000 in 2020? Well, if history repeats itself, 2025 might just give us another wild ride. Hold on to your hats!

The financial winds are blowing in an interesting direction, and Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be catching the breeze. Recent data reveals that US Treasury funds saw an eye-watering $19 billion in net inflows last week, easily surpassing the $14 billion recorded at the pandemic peak in 2020. In fact, the 4-week moving average has risen to $7 billion, which is the highest it’s been since March 2023. Go figure!

The 30-year US Treasury yield dropped by 30 basis points from its April high, meaning bond prices are on the up, and investors seem quite happy to take a little less return in exchange for the safety of these treasury notes. Yes, safety. How thrilling! This increase in demand for Treasurys as a “safe-haven” asset boosts liquidity and stability in the market while keeping US borrowing costs comfortably low. Oh, the wonders of finance!

But hold your horses, there’s a twist! Foreign central banks have been cutting back on their US Treasury holdings, now at a 22-year low of 23%. It seems like they’re stepping away from the table, possibly due to some tariff squabbles with the good ol’ US of A. A little diplomatic dance, if you will.

Meanwhile, gold is having quite the moment. Its share of global reserves has jumped to 18%, the highest in 26 years. China, ever the overachiever, has doubled its gold reserves since 2023. This golden surge is enough to make your typical pirate blush.

It’s clear that the world is gradually shifting away from the mighty dollar, and this could be a golden (pun intended) opportunity for Bitcoin. In 2020, during the pandemic, US Treasury inflows skyrocketed, Bitcoin went from $9,000 to nearly $60,000, and gold saw a 14.5% increase in global reserves in just 18 months. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? It’s like déjà vu, but with more zeros in the bank account.

Looking at the current environment—bond market stabilizing and central banks rushing for the gold—it’s tempting to think Bitcoin might be gearing up for its next big leap. In 2023, when US Treasury yields climbed amid recession worries, Bitcoin surged by 47% in just one month while the Nasdaq was down by 8.7%. As yields ease and faith in the US dollar wanes, Bitcoin’s allure as a global store of value is only likely to increase. Ooh, exciting!

However, let’s not get carried away. The Bitcoin party could falter if a global recession rears its ugly head in 2025. If that happens, investors might prefer to cozy up with traditional safe-haven assets like cash or US Treasurys, leaving Bitcoin out in the cold. A speculative asset in a downturn? Unlikely to win the popularity contest, I’m afraid.

Google Searches for “Bitcoin” Hit Long-Term Lows, Says Bitwise CEO

According to the ever-so-anonymous Capital Flows, global macroeconomic factors are driving Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory. The analyst pointed out that Bitcoin’s current momentum is incredibly strong, as evidenced by a directional probability skew chart—whatever that means. Don’t you just love finance jargon?

This is in line with Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley’s recent musings that Google searches for “Bitcoin” have dropped to long-term lows, suggesting that the current rally is being driven by institutions, advisors, corporations, and, well, nations. Sorry, retail investors—looks like you’re not on this ride. The absence of retail-driven interest is a stark contrast to previous cycles when Bitcoin’s price and search volume were, shall we say, more inseparable. As they say, institutional adoption is the new black.

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2025-04-28 21:10