As a seasoned crypto investor with several years of experience under my belt, I find Eric Crown’s analysis insightful and well-researched. Based on his historical data and market trends, I share his optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in July. However, I also acknowledge that the market can be unpredictable, and it is essential to remain cautious and adaptive to changing circumstances.
As a cryptocurrency analyst and trader, I looked back at my research and predictions from June 22, 2024, regarding Bitcoin‘s expected performance in the upcoming month of July.
As we approach the final days of June, it’s worth looking back at Bitcoin’s historical performance in July. Crown points out that July has traditionally been a profitable month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last fourteen years ending with gains. This equates to a roughly 64% likelihood of a positive closing price for Bitcoin in July.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that the average gain for Bitcoin in positive closing months during July is around 19%, while the average loss for negative closing months hovers just under 9%. This trend suggests that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate within a narrow range between approximately $60,000 and $70,000. However, it’s crucial to note that as long as Bitcoin maintains its position above the May lows, there is a stronger likelihood of an upward trend. Nonetheless, the uncertain market conditions from June make this prediction less definitive.
As a crypto investor, I observe the market trends by comparing this month’s returns with those of June. June proved to be rather calm with minimal price volatility, barely registering a 4% change from the opening price. This tranquil behavior might signal Bitcoin taking a breather for the summer, potentially leading to an extended period of consolidation. I sense heightened emotions in the market, as investors become increasingly optimistic about any $1,000 surge and pessimistic about any similar downturn.
I’ve observed that altcoins exhibit noticeable volatility these days, amplifying their reactions even to slight price fluctuations in Bitcoin. This erratic behavior contributes to the current negative sentiment in the market. In contrast, Bitcoin has more than doubled its value compared to last year, which I consider a positive sign.
As a financial analyst, I predict that Bitcoin is poised to end its June rally around $65,000, keeping within the established consolidation range. It’s essential to note that historically, Saturdays have exhibited the least volatile trading sessions for Bitcoin. The likelihood of a positive close on these days is slightly increased. However, investors should be aware that potential returns on Saturdays are generally minimal – whether they’re gains or losses.
Expert’s take: The CME’s weekly closing indicates that Bitcoin finished the week slightly above the average price, maintaining optimism for a bullish trend in the near future. According to Crown, the opening price on Monday is crucial and could trigger further price movements, possibly generating short-term profit opportunities if Bitcoin starts above $60,000. However, a failure to sustain this level may signal potential downside risks.
As a researcher studying Bitcoin trading strategies using the Quant Automation service, I’ve come across a daily setup that I refer to as “Crown.” This particular setup has a success rate of approximately 52%, making it similar to the unpredictability of a coin flip. However, its value lies in the fact that the average winning trade comes out to be over 22%, while the average losing trade is only slightly above 8%. Currently, Bitcoin is exhibiting consolidation within a 10,000-dollar range, and it’s presently resting on the 50% retracement level, which can be found around 63,900 dollars.
According to Crown’s analysis, if Bitcoin drops below its current level, it may fall into the $61,000 to $62,000 price range, which he considers a significant support area for preserving bullish expectations. He underlines that even if a new lower high forms, it could take several weeks, possibly stretching until late July or early August, paving the way for a potential strong rally in the fourth quarter.
In summary, the market is currently experiencing a period of stability with major price fluctuations being unlikely for now.
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2024-06-23 10:01