In the shadowy corridors of biotech, where hope and hubris intertwine like lovers in a fever dream, Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) recently unveiled its latest act. The market, that great beast of many moods, roared back with contemptuous fury-a 40% plunge in share price following Phase 2 results for VK2735, an oral obesity treatment. From $42 to $26 it fell, as if hurled from Olympus by some capricious god displeased with mortal ambition.
And yet, dear reader, let us not mistake panic for truth. For beneath this tempest lies a curious signal: at just 13 weeks, VK2735 achieved a weight loss of 12.2%. Compare this, though imperfectly, to Eli Lilly‘s orforglipron and Novo Nordisk‘s oral semaglutide, whose respective triumphs of 12.4% and 15% were measured over 68 to 72 weeks. Yes, tolerability concerns loomed large-the discontinuation rate was 28%, compared to placebo’s 18%, driven chiefly by gastrointestinal woes-but is this not merely a matter of refinement? Surely, dosing protocols can be tempered, as one might calm a skittish horse.
Two Parallel Paths Toward Redemption
On June 25, 2025, Viking unfurled its grand design: the Phase 3 VANQUISH program, a sprawling endeavor enrolling thousands. VANQUISH-1 aims for 4,500 adults with obesity; VANQUISH-2 targets 1,100 obese or overweight souls burdened by type 2 diabetes. Both trials stretch over 78 weeks, testing three weekly injectable doses-7.5 mg, 12.5 mg, and 17.5 mg-against placebo. The prize? A measure of percentage change in body weight.
The injectable form whispers promises of greater efficacy still. Its earlier Phase 2 data revealed a 14.7% weight loss within 13 weeks, with no plateau in sight. Side effects, mostly mild to moderate, waned as the study progressed. In a curious twist, exploratory cohorts showed patients maintaining their losses when down-titrated from 90 mg to 30 mg-a tantalizing glimpse of transition from needle to pill, should such alchemy prove viable.
The Oral Odyssey Continues
For the oral formulation, however, the Food and Drug Administration demands further proof. A Phase 2b trial will likely refine titration strategies before advancing to Phase 3. Delayed, yes-but not destroyed. After all, what are delays but the necessary interludes between acts?
The stage remains vast and inviting. Goldman Sachs, ever the soothsayer, now foresees a $95 billion obesity market by 2030. Even a modest slice-a mere 2%-translates to roughly $1.9 billion in annual revenue. Consider this against Viking’s current market cap of $2.9 billion, and you begin to see why the vultures circle with interest.
Meanwhile, the company toys with monthly dosing for its injectable, joining forces with only Novo Nordisk in demonstrating efficacy across both oral and injectable forms. Such versatility could grant patients freedom to glide between regimens like dancers switching partners mid-waltz.
A Partner in Crime?
With Phase 3 underway and $808 million in cash as of June 30, 2025, Viking appears poised for battle. Yet the cost of victory-$300 million for its registrational program-casts a long shadow. Thus, partnerships seem inevitable after full dataset analysis and FDA feedback.
Big Pharma, always hungry, circles like wolves around a wounded stag. Though Pfizer abandoned danuglipron, others-AbbVie, Roche, even Amgen-salivate at the prospect of acquiring late-stage obesity assets. Viking, battered but unbowed, presents one of the few remaining opportunities, its recent collapse making acquisition more palatable.
The Phantom of Valuation
Wall Street, ever the unreliable narrator, maintains an average price target of $87 to $90 per share, suggesting a potential 200% upside. How strange, then, that the market clings to failure rather than possibility! The disconnect stems from misunderstood trial designs-titration protocols crafted to maximize efficacy but at the expense of tolerability. Commercial dosing would surely adopt gentler escalation, aligning more closely with the injectable’s robust safety profile.
CDC data reveals that 40% of U.S. adults suffer from obesity, painting an addressable market as vast as the steppes of Siberia. And yet, Viking’s current valuation resembles a tombstone inscribed with premature epitaphs. No, my friends, this is no requiem-it is but a pause, a breath before the next movement.
For those brave enough to peer through the fog of near-term chaos, Viking’s dual-formulation strategy and Phase 3 momentum suggest opportunity cloaked in calamity. The 40% drop feels excessive, a punishment unfitting the crime. Viking stumbled in execution, not science-and in biotech, science is the eternal flame that conquers all. 🌟
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2025-08-26 13:38