Viking Therapeutics: A 2025 Review & 2026 Outlook

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Viking Therapeutics

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX 1.89%). It’s a name that, frankly, sounds like the title of a particularly strenuous historical drama. And 2025 was, for investors, a bit of a drama itself – a rollercoaster, as they say, though perhaps one built by someone who hadn’t quite mastered the principles of smooth transitions. The story, unsurprisingly, revolves around a drug, and the curious business of trying to make people thinner. Which, when you think about it, is a pursuit humanity has been engaged in for, oh, a very long time.

The Weight of Expectation: VK2735

The central character in this tale is VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist. Now, I’m not a biochemist, and frankly, the explanations usually involve diagrams that look like the schematics for a small nuclear reactor. But essentially, it’s a drug designed to tackle diabetes and, more lucratively, obesity. It enters a crowded field, competing with the established giants – Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound – which have already demonstrated a knack for helping people shed pounds, and, incidentally, for generating substantial revenue.

What sets VK2735 apart, at least in theory, is that it’s being developed in both injectable and oral forms. The oral version is particularly interesting. People, it turns out, generally prefer swallowing a pill to receiving a jab. It’s a matter of convenience, a bit of ingrained aversion to needles, and the fact that pills don’t require a refrigerated supply chain. A simple preference, yet it can be a surprisingly powerful driver of market share.

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2025: A Rocky Patch

As you can see from the chart (which, incidentally, looks a bit like a seismograph recording an earthquake), August wasn’t a particularly good month. The top-line results from the Phase 2 VENTURE trial of the oral VK2735 were…underwhelming. Now, a 12.2% weight loss at 13 weeks isn’t nothing. It’s actually quite good, and many people would gladly accept that result. But the market, it seems, wanted more. And, crucially, it had concerns about safety and tolerability. A 20% discontinuation rate due to adverse events is… noticeable.

Oral medications, it turns out, can be a bit rough on the digestive system. It’s a simple matter of physics, really. The drug encounters a far more hostile environment than if it were injected directly into the bloodstream. The most common reason for discontinuation was gastrointestinal distress, which, while unpleasant, isn’t exactly a medical emergency. Still, it’s enough to give investors pause.

A Second Wind

But the story didn’t end there. After the initial disappointment, the stock staged a bit of a recovery. Investors started to focus on the potential upside. And there were several reasons to be optimistic. Firstly, the Phase 1 trial had demonstrated excellent tolerability, suggesting the issues in Phase 2 might have been an anomaly. Secondly, the VENTURE trial used an aggressive titration rate and only lasted 13 weeks – perhaps the patients simply needed more time to adjust. It’s like trying to learn a new language in a week – you might grasp the basics, but fluency takes time. Moreover, the discontinuation rate in the placebo group was 13% – suggesting the trial population may have been particularly sensitive.

Viking has also completed enrollment in a trial testing the oral form as a maintenance dose after an initial subcutaneous dose – a potentially smart strategy. And, importantly, the subcutaneous form of VK2735 is showing promise. Patient enrollment is complete in the 78-week Phase 3 VANQUISH-1 trial for obesity, and the Phase 3 VANQUISH-2 trial for diabetes is expected to be completed in early 2026.

Looking Ahead to 2026

The recent acquisitions of obesity drug companies, like Metsera by Pfizer, suggest there’s significant interest in this space. And Viking, with a $3.9 billion market cap and a healthy $587 million in net cash, could be an attractive takeover target. Larger pharmaceutical companies, after all, have deeper pockets and a better track record in clinical trials. They’re also, generally, more adept at navigating the regulatory hurdles. It’s a bit like the difference between building a treehouse and constructing a skyscraper – both require skill and planning, but the scale is vastly different. So, Viking Therapeutics remains a fascinating, if slightly bumpy, ride. Whether it ultimately reaches its destination remains to be seen, but it’s certainly a company worth keeping an eye on.

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2026-01-20 23:14