Viking: Seriously?

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Look, everyone’s running around chasing Lilly and panicking about Novo Nordisk. It’s just…a *scene*. All this money sloshing around. And meanwhile, there’s Viking Therapeutics. Viking. It’s not even a good name. Sounds like a Scandinavian furniture store with questionable assembly instructions. But, and this is the infuriating part, it might actually be worth a look.

They’re at $3.7 billion valuation as of August 1st. Three point seven *billion*. For a company still waiting for data. It’s like…buying a timeshare based on a rendering. A *rendering*! But the industry, naturally, is doing its thing, pretending this makes sense. After Pfizer’s fiasco and Roche’s…well, whatever *that* was—spending billions and then getting nothing? It’s supposed to create an “opportunity”? Just admit it was a bad bet!

This Data Better Be Good

The whole thing hinges on this “Phase 2 data” for VK2735, which, okay, great. More letters and numbers. Expected in the second half of next year, they say. September. *September*. As if the market cares about seasonality. They already showed some weight loss with the injectable stuff – up to 14.7% body weight? Fine. That’s…something. And “favorable safety profile”? What does that even mean? Mild to moderate gastrointestinal distress is still distress, people. It’s just…polite distress.

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But the *oral* data. That’s where it gets interesting. And by interesting, I mean potentially catastrophic if it doesn’t work. Because a pill is what people want. Convenience! Laziness! It’s the American way. If it works, suddenly Viking is a big deal. But if it doesn’t…it’ll be another one of these biotech stories where everyone loses money, and I’m stuck explaining to people why I even bothered.

The Competition is…Incompetent.

Honestly, watching these big pharma companies is like watching a clown car crash. Pfizer throwing in the towel because of stomach problems? Really? You’re going to develop a drug to *fix* a problem and then give people a *different* problem? And Roche? Two point seven *billion* dollars down the drain. Two. Point. Seven. Billion! It’s…it’s just gauche. It leaves a lane open, which is good for Viking, I guess. But mostly it just makes me question the intelligence of these people.

Everybody’s talking about a $100 billion market by 2030. Like anyone actually knows that. It’s a projection. A *guess*. But if this Viking thing works, and they’re the only ones with a decent oral option…then, yeah, maybe. Maybe they get bought. Maybe somebody tries to partner. But it all depends on this data. It’s constantly over my head. And I don’t like it.

Value Creation? More Like Avoiding Disaster

Strategic partnerships. Acquisition interest. Those are the phrases they use. It’s always “synergies” and “portfolio enhancement.” What it really means is someone panicked and needs a quick fix. Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb…they’re all facing patent cliffs. Which means they didn’t plan well enough. Now they’re scrambling. And Viking, with its “clean intellectual property position” – which just sounds like they didn’t accidentally step on anyone’s toes – is a potential target.

Or they could try to sell directly to consumers, like Hims & Hers. Subscription models. It’s… unsettling. A monthly pill for your weight. Like a nicotine patch, but for societal pressures? I shudder to think. Even Novo Nordisk could come sniffing around. Seriously? After the guidance cut? They need Viking? It’s preposterous.

Risks. There Are Always Risks.

There always are! This is a biotech company, for crying out loud. The oral version might not work as well. The FDA might decide they don’t like obesity drugs. Manufacturing could be a nightmare. It’s a minefield of potential disappointments. And then there’s Eli Lilly, looming like a pharmaceutical giant. They’re just…there. Taking all the oxygen.

But Viking has the injectable data, and this dual mechanism thing. They have some breathing room. Their management seems…competent, at least they haven’t done anything spectacularly stupid yet. And they have cash. For now. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s something.

So, What Now?

This whole thing is exhausting. A lot rides on this readout. If it’s good, great. If it’s bad? Well, I’ll have a lot of explaining to do. But the valuation is…intriguing, I’ll admit. It’s like finding a twenty-dollar bill in an old coat pocket. You don’t know where it came from, but you’re not returning it. If you’re willing to gamble on this…setup, it’s not entirely unreasonable. But it better work. It *really* better work. 🙄

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2025-08-05 06:14