My aunt Mildred, a woman who believes strongly in both essential oils and penny stocks, called me last week. She’d read something about Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX 0.04%) and, naturally, assumed I had a secret insider’s understanding. I don’t. I just spend an alarming amount of time staring at stock charts, which, I’ve discovered, is less a sign of financial acumen and more a symptom of mild desperation. She wanted to know if she should “get in before it pops.” I told her I’d look into it, mostly to get her off the phone. She’s currently convinced kombucha is a viable retirement plan.
The Last Time They Counted the Money
Vertex reports earnings on February 12th, and the last time they did, it was… underwhelming. Revenue was up 11% to $3.08 billion, which sounds impressive until you realize my nephew made a similar jump in his Lego collection over the same period. Earnings per share only budged 4.7% to $4.20, because apparently researching cures is expensive. The stock took a little dip, which is the financial equivalent of a polite cough in a crowded room. It wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t exactly a ticker-tape parade, either.
They’re mostly known for their cystic fibrosis treatments. Five of them, actually: Alyftrek, Trikafta, Symdeko, Orkambi, and Kalydeco. It’s a lot of -ly names, and frankly, I get lost. Trikafta is the big moneymaker, having brought in over $7.7 billion through September. It’s protected by patents until 2037, which is comforting, I suppose. It means they can keep charging a lot for it. They all work on the CFTR protein, which, as far as I understand, is a tiny little gatekeeper for water and chloride. It’s a surprisingly complex system for something that mostly involves mucus.
Everyone’s watching Alyftrek. It’s the new kid on the block, and supposedly the best CFTR modulator. It’s a once-a-day pill, which is a definite improvement over Trikafta’s twice-daily dose. My grandmother used to say anything worth doing is worth doing twice, but she also ironed her socks, so I take her advice with a grain of salt. Alyftrek also seems to work on more mutations, which is good. The hope is it’ll replace Trikafta as their flagship treatment, but it only brought in $247 million last quarter, which, according to analysts, wasn’t enough. It’s like bringing a slightly smaller cake to a birthday party.
Journavx, their non-opioid pain therapy, is also a bit of a letdown, with only $33 million in sales. It’s always disheartening when things don’t quite live up to expectations. They also have a couple of kidney disease therapies in late-stage trials, which is promising, but feels very far away. It’s like hoping for a winning lottery ticket.
What Are They Expecting This Time?
They’re predicting full-year revenue between $11.9 and $12 billion, which sounds like a lot of money, even to me. They need $3.1 to $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter to get there. Analysts are predicting $3.17 billion, an 8.9% increase, and $5.07 per share. It’s a lot of numbers, and frankly, it makes my head spin. I’m better with anecdotes.
Investors will also be watching Alyftrek and Journavx. If those sales don’t pick up, it could be a bumpy ride.
Should You Buy Before February 12th?
Vertex is trading at a high valuation, around 33 times earnings. That means a lot of growth is already baked into the price. It’s like buying a perfectly ripe avocado – you’re paying a premium for the potential, but there’s also a risk it’ll turn brown before you get to enjoy it. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 23, which is slightly less terrifying.
If they deliver on their earnings and revenue expectations, the stock will likely go up. In the long run, their ability to expand their cystic fibrosis franchise and develop therapies in other areas is a good sign. But it’s also a gamble. All investments are, really. It’s just a matter of how comfortable you are with the possibility of losing money. As for my aunt Mildred, I’m gently suggesting she stick to essential oils. At least they smell nice.
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2026-02-10 17:42