Vanguard, that most respectable of fund purveyors, boasts a menagerie of one hundred and three exchange-traded funds. A curious number, isn’t it? As if assembled by a distracted clerk counting pigeons. And yet, nearly half – forty-nine, to be precise – have delivered returns that, while not exactly miraculous, are sufficient to raise an eyebrow. Eighty-eight, a veritable host, have managed to avoid outright loss. A middling success, perhaps, but success nonetheless. One anticipates, with a weary sigh, that several of these funds will, in the coming year, perform… adequately.
But which, pray tell, will truly soar? A question that vexes the soul, like a persistent fly buzzing around a samovar. The usual prognosticators offer their pronouncements, their charts and graphs, their assurances of infallible algorithms. Poppycock, I say! The market is not a machine; it is a capricious beast, governed by whim and rumor, and occasionally, a well-timed bribe to the right official.
A Parliament of Possibilities
Predicting the champion is, naturally, a fool’s errand. One might point to the Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (VYMI +0.05%), a fund that, over the last twelve months, has enjoyed a period of… let us say, robustness. A return of over thirty-eight percent is not to be sneezed at, though one suspects much of that gain comes from the sheer desperation of investors seeking any port in a storm. It pays a dividend, yes, but a dividend is merely a palliative, a temporary distraction from the inevitable decay of capital.
Nine of the top ten Vanguard performers are, it seems, engaged in the lucrative business of exporting… something… to distant lands. The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK +0.30%) trails close behind, its gains almost as substantial. One pictures a continent brimming with quaint cafes and suspiciously cheap sausages. And then there’s the Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX 0.57%), a fund that owns a staggering one hundred and twelve companies dedicated to the art of… communication. What, precisely, they are communicating remains a mystery. Perhaps they are simply transmitting the sound of one hand clapping.
The Inevitable Triumph of Silicon
However, if pressed to wager a modest sum – enough, perhaps, to purchase a decent pair of boots – I would place my chips on the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT 0.05%). Why? Because the future, my friends, is not built of brick and mortar, but of silicon and algorithms. And within this fund resides a quartet of titans: Nvidia (NVDA 0.44%), Apple (AAPL 0.93%), Microsoft (MSFT +0.70%), and Broadcom (AVGO +2.63%). Together, they comprise nearly half of the fund’s holdings. A disconcerting concentration of power, perhaps, but a profitable one.
The so-called AI bubble? Nonsense. It is not a bubble, but a burgeoning tide. Demand for these applications will only increase, fueled by a relentless pursuit of efficiency and a pathological need for distraction. Nvidia’s GPUs will continue to fly off the shelves, Broadcom’s custom accelerators will multiply like rabbits, and Microsoft’s Azure cloud will expand to encompass the entire digital universe. As for Apple… well, Apple is Apple. They expect record revenues, and rumors abound of smart glasses that may or may not materialize. But even the announcement of such a device will be enough to send the stock soaring. It is, after all, not about the technology, but about the illusion of innovation.
The Perils of Prediction
Of course, I could be entirely wrong. The market is a fickle mistress, and even the most carefully laid plans can be undone by a sudden gust of wind. If the demand for AI were to falter, or if the economy were to succumb to a recession, this fund would suffer. And even if it does perform well, it may still lag behind other funds. Perhaps international stocks will continue their ascent, or some other sector will emerge as the new darling of Wall Street. The possibilities are endless, and equally absurd.
Therefore, I would not say that this fund is the odds-on favorite to soar. But I believe its chances are as good, if not better, than most. It is, after all, a gamble. And in the grand scheme of things, are we not all merely gamblers, casting our fortunes into the capricious hands of fate?
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2026-01-19 13:53