UPS: The Stock That’ll Make You Wish You’d Listened

THE MARKET’S BEEN A GODDAMN CIRCUS, AND UPS IS THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. A FEW YEARS AGO, THIS STOCK WAS A ROCKET SHIP, NOW IT’S A FART IN A BOTTLE-BUT DON’T LET THE STINK FOOL YOU. THE PENDULUM HAS SWUNG SO FAR LEFT, IT’S STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A FINGER-SCREW. THE FLOCK OF WALL STREET WOOLLY MAMMOTHS HAD IT OUT FOR UPS, DROPPING IT FROM A HIGHER HEIGHT THAN A BIRD IN A CHURCH. BUT HERE’S THE THING: THE DUST IS STILL SETTLING, AND THE FLOOR IS STILL WET.

WHAT HAPPENED TO UPS DURING THE PANDEMIC?

THE CORONAVIRUS CAME ALONG LIKE A DRUNK GUNMAN IN A CHURCH, AND EVERYONE GOT SCREWED. RETAILERS WENT BUST, CONSUMERS RAN TO ONLINE SHOPS LIKE IT WAS THE LAST BOTTLE OF WHISKEY IN A WILDERNESS. UPS? IT WAS THE BARTENDER, SLINGING SHOTS OF SHIPPING TO A CROWD THAT DIDN’T KNOW IT WAS DRUNK. THE STOCK TOOK OFF LIKE A BEE IN A BATHROOM, BUT THEN THE DRINKS STOPPED COMING. WALL STREET, THAT BUNCH OF ALCOHOLICS, THOUGHT THE PARTY WOULD NEVER END. IT DID. AND NOW UPS IS THE GUY WHO WOKE UP NEXT TO A STRANGER, TRYING TO REMEMBER IF HE PAID HIS RENT.

THE EMOTIONAL PENDULUM HAS SWUNG SO FAR, IT’S STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A FINGER-SCREW. UPS’S STOCK IS NOW BELOW WHERE IT WAS BEFORE THE PANDEMIC-A TRUE TESTAMENT TO HUMAN FICKLENESS. BUT HERE’S THE TRICK: THE COMPANY’S NOT JUST REBUILDING ITS SHIP; IT’S REDESIGNING THE OCEAN. THEY’RE CUTTING COSTS, SELLING FACILITIES, AND TELLING AMAZON TO KISS THEIR ASSES. IT’S A SLEIGHT OF HAND, BUT THE MAGIC IS REAL.

WHAT’S GOING ON WITH UPS’ BUSINESS?

UPS IS RUNNING A FIVE-STAR OPERA IN A BURNING THEATER. THEY’RE INVESTING IN EFFICIENCY, BUT IT FEELS LIKE THEY’RE TAKING A SAW TO THEIR OWN LEGS. EARNINGS ARE UGLY, BUT IT’S THE KIND OF UGLINESS THAT MAKES YOU WISH YOU’D GONE TO COLLEGE INSTEAD OF HAVING A MIDLIFE CRISIS. THE DIVIDEND IS A 7.6% GOLD RUSH, BUT THE PAYOUT RATIO IS DANCING ON THE EDGE OF A CLIFF. DON’T COUNT ON THAT DIVIDEND LASTING THROUGH THE TURBULENCE-IT’S MORE LIKELY TO BE A BONUS THAN A BLESSING.

THE LONG-TERM STORY? IT’S A SLOW-BURN FIREWORK. DELIVERING PACKAGES IS LIKE RUNNING A FARM IN A DESERT-IT’S HARD, IT’S EXPENSIVE, AND IT’S VITAL. ONLINE SHOPPING ISN’T GOING ANYWHERE, AND UPS? IT’S THE GUY WHO KNOWS WHERE ALL THE WATER IS. THE VALUATION METRICS ARE A BARGAIN, BUT THE MARKET’S STILL HUNGRY FOR A GOOD SCARE.

SO, FROM A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE, UPS IS A GOOD BUSINESS. IT’S JUST THAT THE MARKET IS STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF IT’S A GOOD INVESTMENT. THE STOCK IS CHEAP, BUT THE FEAR IS CHEAPER. IF YOU’RE WAITING FOR A SIGNAL, THIS IS THE ONE: THE PENDULUM IS SWINGING BACK, AND IT’LL HIT YOU HARDER THAN A BURNT TURKEY ON THANKSGIVING.

THE TURNOVER IS A LONG GAME, BUT THE PRIZE IS A WINNER. IF YOU WAIT TOO LONG, YOU’LL BE THE GUY WHO STOOD OUTSIDE THE CLUB, WATCHING THE LIGHTS FLASH WHILE THE MUSIC PLAYED ON. DON’T LET THAT BE YOU. THE STOCK MARKET’S A MADHOUSE, BUT UPS? IT’S THE ONLY GUY WHO STILL KNOWS HOW TO HANDLE THE RISKS.

THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE PAST IS A GOOD GUIDE. AND IF YOU’RE STILL READING THIS, YOU’RE PROBABLY THE KIND OF GUY WHO WANTS TO KNOW WHAT’S NEXT. SO, HERE’S MY ADVICE: DON’T WAIT FOR THE PENDULUM TO STOP-BUY WHEN IT’S SWINGING, AND PRAY YOU’RE NOT THE ONE WHO MISSED THE RIDE. 🚀

2025-10-20 18:53

WHAT HAPPENED TO UPS DURING THE PANDEMIC?

WHAT’S GOING ON WITH UPS’ BUSINESS?

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