UPS: A Most Peculiar Recovery

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It has come to my attention – a most unwelcome attention, mind you, like a fly buzzing around a samovar – that certain optimists are beginning to murmur about United Parcel Service. UPS, they call it. A rather pedestrian name for a behemoth tasked with the herculean labor of moving… packages. Packages filled with what, one wonders? Dreams? Disappointments? Mostly, I suspect, it is simply more of everything, endlessly circulating, a testament to the futility of human desire.

For years, this company, this logistical labyrinth, has been… ailing. Not with a grand, romantic illness, but a slow, creeping malaise brought on by the weight of its own operations and a global economy prone to fits of pique. The last time investors experienced genuine delight – a sensation as rare as a snowdrop in July – was, if memory serves, back in 2021. Since then, the stock has descended, a slow, dignified plummet of 39%, while the S&P 500, that boisterous, ever-ascending balloon, has soared a preposterous 67%. A most uneven contest, wouldn’t you agree?

A Direction, Perhaps, But Towards What?

They report, you see, numbers. On January 27th, a pronouncement was made regarding the year’s end. Revenue, they claim, reached $24.5 billion. Slightly better, they insist, than the anticipated $24 billion. A difference of five billion! A king’s ransom! Or, more accurately, a rounding error in the grand scheme of things. Per-share profit, adjusted of course (as if one can truly adjust reality), reached $2.38, surpassing the expectations of Wall Street, those tireless scribes of speculation.

But here’s the curious part. They are, deliberately, reducing the number of packages delivered for Amazon. Amazon! That insatiable entity that threatens to swallow the world whole. They claim these deliveries are “extraordinarily dilutive.” A polite way of saying they were losing money on every single one. A controversial move, certainly. Like attempting to prune a hydra. But perhaps, just perhaps, it will strengthen their margins. Though I suspect margins, like virtue, are fleeting things.

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A Rally, A Flutter, A Momentary Stay Against the Void

As of Monday, the shares have risen 17% since the start of the year. A most impressive surge, one might say. Though I recall a similar flutter last spring, followed by a rather disheartening descent. Over the past six months, they’ve rallied by 37%. A considerable climb, yes, but a mere pebble on the mountain of past losses. They speak of profitability, of sustainable growth. Fine words, indeed. But I’ve learned to distrust any utterance promising sustainability. It is a concept best left to forests and, perhaps, particularly stubborn weeds.

The stock trades at a reasonable 15 times its estimated future earnings. Reasonable, you say? As if reason had any bearing on the whims of the market! It is a chaotic beast, driven by fear and greed, and occasionally, a misplaced sense of optimism. And, as a bonus, they offer a dividend yield of 6.2%. A pittance, really, considering the risks involved. Still, it may be enough to distract the unwary investor, like a shiny bauble offered to a distracted magpie.

Overall, it makes for a… tolerable buy today. But do not mistake tolerance for enthusiasm. The market, like a mischievous imp, will undoubtedly find a way to disappoint you. One can only hope the disappointment is… aesthetically pleasing.

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2026-02-06 00:22