UnitedHealth: A Discount, Maybe. Don’t Thank Me.

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So, UnitedHealth Group (UNH +3.99%) had a Tuesday. Reported earnings? Fine. Stock price plummeted 20%? Less fine. It’s like they announced they’d discovered a cure for beige – nobody cares until it affects their 401k. Now it’s down over 50% from its 2024 high. Should you buy? Look, I’m not a financial advisor. I played one on the internet once, but mostly I just watch true crime documentaries and judge people’s life choices.

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Why the Panic, People?

Apparently, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is proposing a 0.09% increase in Medicare Advantage rates for 2027. Zero point zero nine. It’s less than the annual increase in my existential dread. Analysts were expecting 4-6%. It’s like ordering a pizza and getting a crouton. Not ideal. Humana (HUM 6.70%) and CVS Health (CVS +2.88%) also took a hit. It’s a reminder that in healthcare, “advantage” is a relative term. Mostly relative to bankruptcy.

UnitedHealthcare is the biggest player in this game, membership-wise, so they feel it more. Their CEO, Timothy Noel, basically said the proposed rates don’t reflect reality. Which, honestly, is a pretty solid tagline for 2024. He also mentioned a “hard look” at their geographic footprint. Translation: they’re probably going to start drawing lines on a map with a very expensive pen.

Bounce Back or Another Beige Moment?

The stock had a little bounce on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. A modest, “we’re still alive” kind of bounce. Will it continue? Possibly. The initial sell-off felt…enthusiastic. Like everyone simultaneously remembered they own stock. Medicare Advantage is about 15% of UnitedHealthcare’s business. It’s significant, sure, but not enough to justify a 20% drop. Unless, of course, we’re all operating under the assumption that the entire healthcare system is about to collapse, in which case, stock prices are the least of our worries.

Also, the CMS rates aren’t set in stone yet. Morningstar’s Julie Utterback pointed out they might bump it up to 2.5%. 2.5%! It’s practically a windfall. Okay, it’s still not great, but it’s a step up from feeling like you’re being actively penalized for providing healthcare.

UnitedHealth projected modest growth before this whole rate kerfuffle. CEO Stephen Hemsley says they can still hit 13-16% long-term growth. He’s a CEO. They’re supposed to say that. I’m not saying he’s lying, just that optimism is a key performance indicator.

So, buying UnitedHealth after the sell-off? It could pay off. I’m just saying, don’t come crying to me if it doesn’t. I’ll be too busy re-watching documentaries and judging people’s life choices. And probably investing in canned goods. Just in case.

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2026-01-29 10:52