Tyson & The American Appetite

The government, in its infinite wisdom, has decided we all need more protein. More protein, you understand. As if simply being alive wasn’t enough of a burden. They issued new dietary guidelines, all about whole foods and, yes, protein. They want us eating 1.2 to 1.6 grams of the stuff per kilogram of body weight. That’s a lot of chicken. So it goes.

This, naturally, is good news for Tyson Foods (TSN 1.78%). Not good in a moral sense, of course. Just… financially advantageous. The universe doesn’t care about morality, only about the efficient allocation of resources. And protein, it seems, is now a resource the government wants allocated liberally.

A Leader, Such as It Is

Tyson makes its money from beef, pork, and mostly chicken. Beef is having a rough time – fewer cows, higher prices. A simple equation, really. Chicken, though, is booming. Up 3.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, beef declined. A small victory for the birds, I suppose. And a quiet defeat for the cows.

The USDA predicts poultry will be half of what we eat in terms of meat by 2030. A bleak forecast for vegetarians, perhaps. But for Tyson, a promising trend. The new guidelines will amplify this, naturally. And the National School Lunch Program, feeding 30 million kids daily, will follow suit. It will take time, of course. Everything does. But the direction is clear.

Beyond the meat itself, Tyson is also ahead of the curve on… ingredients. The government wants us avoiding highly processed foods, artificial flavors, petroleum-based dyes. Tyson has already started removing these things. They pulled the petroleum dyes in early 2025, and high fructose corn syrup, sucralose, BHA, and titanium dioxide will be gone by the end of 2025. They’re simplifying labels, using ingredients you’d find in your pantry. A marketing ploy? Perhaps. But it’s also… sensible. A rare thing these days.

Buying Into the Inevitable

Tyson’s stock has gone up recently, but it’s still down about 34% from its peak. A reminder that even good news doesn’t guarantee a smooth ride. The beef business is struggling, yes. But chicken demand is almost certain to keep rising. And if consumers start reading nutrition labels – a big if – Tyson’s prepared foods business could benefit, too.

Shares are trading at about 17 times expected earnings for 2026. Not cheap, exactly. But reasonable. A decent price to pay for a company that’s positioned to ride the wave of increased protein consumption. It’s not a glamorous investment, of course. But then, very few things are. So it goes.

Investing, after all, is simply betting on the future. And the future, as far as we can tell, involves a lot of chicken.

2026-02-03 21:52

A Leader, Such as It Is

Buying Into the Inevitable

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