Two Stocks That Might Be Good Forever… Or Might Not

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As a rule, I try to avoid people who are too excited about things. When you meet someone who talks about a stock like it’s their new favorite band, I get wary. And when they tell you that something has “soared,” as though you were supposed to be on board, well, my skepticism starts to kick in. So here we are, talking about Microsoft (MSFT) and Shopify (SHOP), two tech giants that have somehow both managed to be “on a tear” this year, which is just Wall Street speak for “they’re doing alright.” Microsoft is up 20% since January, and Shopify has climbed 27%. And I’m left wondering, is this really going somewhere, or is it just another flash in the pan?

Here’s what I think: Maybe they’ve got some potential, but don’t start drafting your thank-you notes to the stock gods just yet. Both of these companies have qualities that some people would call “forever stock” material. But in my world, I’m still checking for the fine print.

1. Microsoft

So, Microsoft is apparently doing well. Not a surprise, right? The company’s revenue in Q4 of fiscal 2025 shot up by 18%, reaching $76.4 billion. Earnings per share? Up 24% year over year. It sounds impressive-like when someone tells you they’ve read “War and Peace” in a week and you’re trying to figure out how they managed it while you’ve just finished an episode of “The Office.” But let’s break it down.

Microsoft has pivoted from being the operating system guy in your laptop to being the cloud computing guru that everyone now talks about at dinner parties. Their cloud services, namely Azure, grew 39% in a year, which sounds good, but in the tech world, that’s kind of like saying you made a grilled cheese sandwich that wasn’t too burnt. The competition, like Amazon (AMZN), isn’t just sitting idly by, though. They’re still ahead in the cloud race, so don’t start picturing Microsoft’s cloud just floating off into space without a care.

What does this tell us about Microsoft? They’re well-managed. They’re successful. They have some serious cash. They’re the type of company that people invest in because, well, they’ve been doing it for years. But here’s the catch: their main strength, the “moat” they like to talk about (which is basically their brand and the fact that switching away from them feels like trying to break up with someone after five years), is hardly something that guarantees success forever. History, as we know, is littered with companies that once dominated but then became, well, Blockbuster.

And while we’re at it, let’s not forget the dividend talk. They’re paying a paltry 0.7%. But hey, when you’re making this kind of cash, I guess you can afford to throw out a crumb every now and then. Don’t let that small payout fool you; Microsoft’s cash flow is hefty enough to keep the machine running. But will they still be around when we’re all using flying cars? Who knows. Probably. But still, don’t assume.

2. Shopify

Now, let’s talk about Shopify, which is in that awkward phase where it looks like it might be doing well again after taking a deep breath. After reaching an all-time high in late 2021, the company went through a “slump”-a little like when you try to cook something from Pinterest and it turns out to be an inedible disaster. Shopify spent the better part of a year trying to convince everyone that it wasn’t washed up. But since 2023? It’s been growing again. Their secret sauce? Raising prices (finally), ditching some expensive logistics stuff, and-surprise!-it worked. Revenue jumped 31%, to $2.7 billion in Q2. Net income? A neat $906 million, which, if you remember their $171 million from last year, is kind of a victory lap.

Shopify, in case you haven’t heard, helps small businesses create online stores, and that’s still in high demand. It’s like those people who keep telling you that e-commerce is “the future” while you’re still trying to understand how a printer works. Shopify has built a good customer base and grabbed a solid chunk-12%-of the U.S. e-commerce market. But here’s the thing: people are still using the internet. The whole e-commerce thing is expected to keep growing. So they’re probably going to be around for a while. But let’s not treat Shopify like it’s the next Amazon. It’s more like a really well-dressed boutique in the middle of a very crowded shopping mall. And I think we’ve all seen how those tend to fade away.

What makes Shopify so intriguing to some investors is that it seems to be working on a 100-year plan. It’s like they’re the Benjamin Button of tech companies, but you can’t help but wonder if they might just end up being the next Myspace of e-commerce. Shopify’s customer base is loyal, though, and that’s a form of moat in itself. But just remember: not every moat keeps out the tide. The world changes. So should you.

So, while both Microsoft and Shopify are hanging in there, they’re still, in my view, works in progress. If you’re investing, it’s not a bad idea. But please, don’t put all your eggs in their basket just because they’ve had a good run. In the stock market, as in life, things can go from soaring to plummeting faster than a bad elevator ride. So, maybe keep a little skepticism in your back pocket, just in case.

At the end of the day, maybe these are “forever stocks.” Or maybe they’re just stocks that got lucky in the short term. Time will tell, as it always does. 🧐

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2025-08-24 01:22