TSMC: Chips, AI, and the Inevitable

They say artificial intelligence will be big. A boom, even. Ark Invest, bless their optimistic hearts, predicts a tripling of spending on data centers by 2030. Trillions of dollars. GPUs and ASICs, whatever those are, will be gobbling up the cash. So it goes.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing – TSMC, if you prefer – will likely benefit. Not because I think AI is some grand salvation, but because people keep buying things. Shiny, complicated things. And someone has to make those things. It’s a simple equation, really. A sad one, perhaps, but simple.

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TSMC doesn’t much care if the artificial intelligence craze is real or just another bubble. They make chips for everyone. Nvidia, Broadcom, even Apple – who, incidentally, has been surpassed as TSMC’s biggest customer by Nvidia. Progress, I suppose. Or just shifting priorities. The world keeps spinning, and TSMC keeps churning out silicon.

They have a near monopoly, you see. Intel and Samsung are struggling to keep up. Bleeding cash, focusing on memory. It’s a comforting thought, in a bleak sort of way. Someone is reliably good at something. TSMC can essentially name a price. Four years of pre-determined price hikes, they say. It’s a bit like watching a particularly efficient machine extract wealth from the universe. So it goes.

They anticipate 50-something percent growth in AI revenue until 2029. A hefty number. They’re spending over $50 billion on capital expenditure. It’s a lot of money. Enough to make you wonder what could have been done with it instead. But then, that’s always the question, isn’t it?

The stock trades at a reasonable multiple, they say. 24 times earnings. A PEG ratio of 0.7. Undervalued, perhaps. But what does “value” even mean in a world hurtling towards… well, something? A stock is just a piece of paper, after all. A symbol of hope, or delusion. Take your pick.

I’m not saying buy TSMC because AI will save us. I’m saying buy it because people will continue to desire ever more complex gadgets, and TSMC is uniquely positioned to provide them. It’s not a story of innovation, or progress. It’s a story of relentless, predictable consumption. And in the grand scheme of things, that’s probably the most reliable trend of all. So it goes.

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2026-02-01 23:32