Trump’s 2026 Market: A Dance of Destiny and Doubt

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During the first tenure of President Trump, the stock market did dance with uncommon vigor. The venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.66%), the esteemed S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.19%), and the sprightly Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.03%), having been introduced to the ballroom of prosperity, each performed their quadrilles with gains of 57%, 70%, and 142% respectively.

The opening year of this gentleman’s second, albeit non-consecutive, administration proved no less animated. By 2025’s conclusion, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq had each added 13%, 16%, and 20% to their charms.

Yet whispers of tempests gather. Should the winds of adversity-a correction, bear market, or most dreadful of all, an elevator-down crash-descend upon this revelry in 2026, one might reasonably expect the festivities to falter. And yet, a certain 75-year-old tradition persists: the stock market, much like a well-bred debutante, has curtsied for her partner in every such year.

A Precedent Most Persuasive for Wall Street’s Courtship

Let it be acknowledged, however, that past performances do not guarantee future comportment. Were such a notion possible, every gentleman of commerce would surely have adopted it already.

That said, certain historical patterns possess a most uncanny ability to predict the market’s moods. Take Mr. Ryan Detrick of Carson Group, whose recent missive upon X (that modern-day assembly of wits) examined the S&P 500’s conduct during the tenures of two-term presidents:

The sixth year of a presidency hath proven most generous to stocks.

Never once hath it disappointed, and oft hath it rewarded with 21% gains. pic.twitter.com/nEYq7MmnEt

– Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 31, 2025

Indeed, though year six oft brings the disruption of midterm elections, each of our five prior two-term presidents witnessed their S&P 500 partners gain no less than 10%-averaging a most satisfactory 20.9%.

The Pendulum’s Perpetual Whimsy

For this dance to continue, the Federal Reserve must play its part with greater alacrity. A more accommodating tempo from our central bank might encourage enterprises to borrow and investors to accept premiums of considerable boldness.

Yet the market’s present countenance-gauged by the Shiller Price-to-Earnings Ratio-betrays a certain immodesty. At 40.23, this figure marks but the second time in 155 years that such immodesty has been observed. History, ever the chaperone, reminds us that such extravagance seldom ends without a scene.

The S&P 500’s Shiller PE Ratio now stands second only to the Dot Com era 🚨 A perilous comparison, indeed 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Lx634H7xKa

– Barchart (@Barchart) December 28, 2025

And what of artificial intelligence, that most celebrated guest at this season’s ball? While its promise dazzles, let us recall that prior innovations-the dot-coms, the blockchain-have all at some point found themselves unmasked as mere mortals.

Thus does the pendulum swing, and thus shall the market’s fortunes in 2026 test both precedent and prudence. Whether the dance continues or the orchestra falls silent remains a matter for speculation, though not, perhaps, for long.

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2026-01-04 16:42