It is a commonplace observation that times of economic instability favor not those who attempt to predict the future, but those who profit from the anxieties of others. The speculator may win a fleeting victory, but it is the operators of the financial machinery who consistently accumulate wealth. They do not concern themselves with the reasons for the turbulence; they merely ensure the collection of tolls as the markets convulse.
As geopolitical tensions mount, and economic indicators offer only contradictory signals, this pattern is likely to continue. The present uncertainty is not a temporary aberration, but a defining characteristic of the age. Those who understand this can position themselves accordingly. The following two companies, while distinct in their operations, both benefit directly from this perpetual state of unease.
No. 1: CME Group
CME Group, a name perhaps lost in the jargon of modern finance, is simply the world’s largest marketplace for derivatives. It is a facilitator of bets, a clearinghouse for risk. It handles the mechanics of futures contracts on its various exchanges – the Chicago Board of Trade, the Mercantile Exchange, and so on – and ensures that those who win and lose are properly accounted for. It is, in essence, a highly efficient mechanism for transferring wealth.
The company reports a fifth consecutive year of record trading volume. This is not a cause for celebration, but a predictable consequence of a world increasingly reliant on speculation. Metals trading, in particular, has surged, reflecting a growing apprehension about resource scarcity and economic instability. CME Group merely provides the platform for these anxieties to be expressed – and profits from the transaction.
Increasingly, this activity is driven not by professional traders, but by retail investors accessing the markets through platforms like Robinhood. This is a curious phenomenon – the democratization of risk. CME Group does not directly engage with these individuals, but benefits indirectly from their participation. It is a silent partner in a widespread game of chance.
In 2025, the company recorded a significant increase in new retail accounts. This suggests a growing appetite for speculation, or perhaps simply a lack of viable alternatives for ordinary savings. The forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25.7 indicates that investors anticipate continued growth, and are willing to pay a premium for it. This is not necessarily a sign of sound investment, but rather a reflection of prevailing market sentiment.
The company also offers a dividend yield of 1.7%, providing a modest income stream for those seeking a degree of stability. However, it is important to remember that dividends are merely a distribution of profits, and do not guarantee future returns.
No. 2: Interactive Brokers
Interactive Brokers offers access to a bewildering array of global markets – over 170 exchanges in 40 countries. This is not necessarily a virtue. Complexity often obscures value, and the proliferation of options can lead to paralysis. However, the company has been expanding its platform, adding access to new markets and accepting stablecoins as funding. This suggests an ambition to become a truly universal brokerage.
Like CME Group, Interactive Brokers benefits from increased trading activity during times of uncertainty. From 2020 to 2025, the company’s revenues grew at a compound annual rate of 23%. This is a substantial figure, but it is important to consider the underlying drivers. Is this growth sustainable, or is it merely a temporary consequence of market volatility?
Interactive Brokers trades at a forward P/E ratio of 33.1, indicating that investors view it as a high-growth company. This valuation is more akin to that of a technology firm than a traditional brokerage. Its beta of 1.2 suggests that its share price is likely to be more volatile than the broader market. This is not necessarily a deterrent, but investors should be prepared for fluctuations.
The company’s dividend yield is a paltry 0.4%. This suggests that it is prioritizing reinvestment in its platform over returning capital to shareholders. This may be a prudent strategy in the long run, but investors seeking immediate income will be disappointed.
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2026-02-20 13:52