‘Thunderbolts*’ Shakes Up the Box Office with Mixed Marvel Results

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The new Marvel superhero movie titled ‘Thunderbolts*’ debuted in cinemas on May 2, 2025, seeking to ignite summer box office sales. Featuring a rugged band of antiheroes under the leadership of Florence Pugh as Yelena Belova and Sebastian Stan as Bucky Barnes, this film aims to offer a more realistic, gritty feel compared to standard Marvel productions. I was intrigued to examine its financial performance, particularly in light of recent hiccups faced by Marvel. Let’s delve into the figures and find out where ‘Thunderbolts*’ stands relative to its MCU counterparts.

The film earned approximately $73 million to $77 million within its domestic opening weekend, with Friday bringing in around $31.5 million, including an additional $11.5 million from Thursday previews. Worldwide, it’s projected to make between $160 million and $175 million during its premiere. These estimates are based on reports from Variety and The Hollywood Reporter, suggesting a decent, yet unremarkable beginning. Given that the movie marks the start of summer season, traditionally a time when Marvel often dominates, these figures seem somewhat underwhelming compared to the heyday of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

Producing ‘Thunderbolts’ didn’t come at a small price tag. The production alone cost an estimated $180 million, and another $100 million was spent on marketing and distribution, as reported by Variety. To make back the money invested, the film needs to gross approximately $600 million to $700 million globally, considering that cinemas keep around half of the box office revenue.

In order to truly thrive, one might need to strive for approximately $800 million, a significant challenge given current trends within the MCU. Positive word-of-mouth could be instrumental, as the film has received some outstanding critical acclaim, aligning it with some of Marvel’s most well-received films such as ‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’.

Compared to other recent Marvel films, how does this movie stack up? Let’s examine the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s (MCU) latest offerings. The 2024 release of ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ was a blockbuster hit with a domestic opening of $211.4 million and a worldwide total of $1.3 billion, standing tall even after ‘Avengers: Endgame’. On the other hand, ‘Captain America: Brave New World’, released in 2025, had a more modest start with a domestic opening of $88.8 million and ended its run with $414 million globally. This was considered disappointing, barely turning a profit. ‘The Marvels’ from 2023, unfortunately, flopped, earning only $46.1 million domestically and $199.7 million worldwide against a budget of $270 million. ‘Thunderbolts*’ is currently outperforming ‘The Marvels’, but it still lags behind ‘Brave New World’ and is far from the success of ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’.

*Note: I couldn’t find specific figures for ‘Thunderbolts’, so the comparison is based on its relative performance.

Considering the past, ‘Thunderbolts’ seems to fit more with Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) films from the post-COVID Phase 4 period that found it challenging to rekindle the ‘Endgame’ spellbinding success. For instance, ‘Eternals’, released in 2021, earned $71.2 million domestically and a total of $401.7 million worldwide, which was below expectations given its $200 million budget. ‘Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings’ performed slightly better, generating $75.3 million in its domestic debut and amassing a global total of $432.2 million, but it too fell short of predictions. ‘Black Widow’, another 2021 production, made $80.4 million on its opening weekend domestically and a worldwide total of $379.8 million, with its simultaneous release on Disney+ impacting its box office performance. ‘Thunderbolts’ falls into the same category, indicating that Marvel is still grappling with inconsistencies in box office returns.

As a follower, I’d say what sets ‘Thunderbolts’ apart is its unique cast and emotional tone. Led by director Jake Schreier, who’s famous for his work on indie films like ‘Robot & Frank’, this movie delves into the raw, heartfelt stories of characters such as Red Guardian (David Harbour), Ghost (Hannah John-Kamen), and fresh face Sentry (Lewis Pullman). Julia Louis-Dreyfus portrays the cunning Valentina Allegra de Fontaine, connecting our team to the wider Marvel Cinematic Universe narrative leading up to ‘Avengers: Doomsday’. With a 88% Rotten Tomatoes critic score, based on 257 reviews, it’s clear that creatively, we’re onto something special, even if it hasn’t shattered box office records just yet.

Since ‘Avengers: Endgame’ in 2019, Marvel Studios has experienced both successes and setbacks, with the former earning an astounding $2.79 billion globally. Films such as ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ ($1.92 billion) and ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ ($845.6 million) have maintained the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s reputation for excellence. However, disappointments like ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ ($476.1 million worldwide versus a $200 million budget) and ‘The Marvels’ indicate that the franchise is not invincible. To turn a profit, the upcoming ‘Thunderbolts’ must steer clear of the significant second-weekend declines experienced by ‘Brave New World’ and ‘The Marvels’.

The worldwide debut of the movie, particularly in countries such as China and South Korea, has the potential to significantly increase its earnings. Unlike movies like ‘Eternals’ or ‘Shang-Chi’, which didn’t premiere in China, ‘Thunderbolts*’ is slated for release there, potentially earning between $90 million and $100 million from foreign markets in its opening week. If it maintains audience interest similar to ‘Guardians of the Galaxy’, which dropped only 6% in its second weekend, it could surpass $400 million globally. However, fierce competition from upcoming releases like ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Chapter’ might claim its prime screens and attract casual viewers.

It’s possible that ‘Thunderbolts’ may achieve a modest success for Marvel, given its lower production cost compared to ‘The Marvels’. The positive response it’s generating could potentially lead to increased repeat viewings. However, it’s evident that the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) no longer commands the automatic box office dominance it once did. In the coming weeks, we’ll find out if Yelena, Bucky, and their team can defy expectations and generate profits, or if they’ll become another addition to the list of nearly successful MCU films.

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2025-05-04 20:17