This Bitcoin Mystery Has Experts Flabbergasted: Supply Down, Price Flat! 🤔🚀

by

If you thought quantum mechanics was confusing, try keeping up with Bitcoin these days. Picture a colossal digital dragon, huffing and puffing as it lounges atop a dramatically shrinking hoard—because, shockingly, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have plummeted to a five-year low. Swan, a financial service with a suspiciously aquatic name, sounded the alarm on May 1—with the sort of calm panic only the truly invested can muster.

“Strategy just added 15,000 more BTC, ETFs are stacking, and sovereign wealth is circling,” they exclaim, barely pausing for breath before plunging into existential crisis mode: “So why isn’t the price exploding?”

Currently, Bitcoin is so determined to consolidate at the $95,000 level that it’s considering squatting rights. For the entire week it has sat there, like an indecisive customer at a salad bar.

The Next Move: Not Exactly a Straight Line

According to the analysts at Swan—and believe me, nothing says Bitcoin analysis like aquatic bird metaphors—some of those fleeing BTC are just heading for the metaphorical fridge (cold storage), which is bullish! If you like your optimism chilled.

Unfortunately for armchair astrologers, a whole bunch is flowing into the ironclad vaults of institutional custody: ETFs, fund administrators, and shadowy trading skeletons, er—”infrastructure.” The coins aren’t lost, they’re simply swimming upstream. Like salmon, only with more existential dread and fewer environmental documentaries.

Bitcoin balances are now at a five-year low.
Meanwhile:
• MicroStrategy gobbled another 15,000 BTC
• ETFs are piling on
• Sovereign money is circling, presumably in very expensive suits

So why isn’t the price exploding?

Here’s what most people are missing…

— Swan (@Swan) April 30, 2025

But before you mortgage the garden gnome collection, not all this Bitcoin is napping. Some is out there, hard at work as digital collateral, propping up yield platforms, and starring in an assortment of structured products only a lawyer could love. The rest is presumably on holiday.

“Bitcoin is still a market, and in markets, sellers never disappear.”
(Sellers are, apparently, the universe’s one inexhaustible resource.)

So who’s holding, who’s selling, and who’s just really, really confused? Traders chasing quick sugar highs, true believers shaving off a bit for a rainy day, and your cousin who thought he was buying Chuck E. Cheese tokens.

Take MicroStrategy, for example: miners are producing about 13,500 new BTC a month, but with cheap debt and more relentless capital than a group of caffeinated squirrels, MicroStrategy is snatching them up faster than they can be mined. It’s called “synthetic halving,” which sounds much sexier than it probably is.

They’re not just stacking, they’re performing economic origami with the supply curve. The upshot? Yes, supply is drying up. But price only starts breakdancing when demand goes utterly off-script. As soon as infinite fiat runs headlong into actually finite Bitcoin, expect a price move as subtle as being run over by a marching band—and about as reversible as spaghetti bolognese on a white shirt.

#BTC
Bitcoin Price Discovery Roadmap (Definitely Not to Scale)
Currently, BTC is chewing through its First Price Discovery Correction (that’s the green bit), preparing for its Second Price Discovery Uptrend (unless the universe ends first).
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 30, 2025

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Still Rangebound, Still Mysterious

Just this morning, during hours when only insomniacs are awake in Asia, Bitcoin dipped below $93,400 only to reappear above $94,800—possibly for the attention. Within a tight, not-so-exciting $93,000–$95,000 zone, Bitcoin sits, fidgeting, taunting traders with the patience of a Zen monk and the unpredictability of a caffeinated squirrel (see above).

Despite the drama, Bitcoin’s up over 12% this month and bounced mightily from its April pout at $75,000. “Bitcoin is testing key resistance at $93K–$95K, breaking its downtrend and forming a higher high,” reports Glassnode, noted for analyzing more chain signals than a midwestern railroad. The market, as they say, is at a turning point. Probably. Maybe. Ask again tomorrow.

Read More

2025-05-01 08:31