The Weight of Expectations: Following in Lilly’s Footsteps

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Eli Lilly, a name now echoing through the halls of pharmaceutical legend, has performed a feat akin to turning lead into, well, more expensive lead. A decade of market-crushing success, largely thanks to a certain knack for persuading the human body to behave, has left some wondering if the opportunity has passed. Lilly is, at this juncture, the largest healthcare stock in existence – a fact that makes one ponder the logistics of finding a sufficiently large office for all the accountants.1 But the pursuit of alchemical gold – or, in this case, effective therapeutics – is rarely a closed book. It merely shifts to smaller laboratories, where ambition burns brighter and the risks are… considerably more flammable.

So, if you find yourself gazing longingly at Lilly’s ascent and suspecting the ladder has been thoroughly dismantled, allow me to introduce two contenders. Viking Therapeutics and Abivax. Both are attempting to bottle lightning – or, more accurately, to coax recalcitrant hormones and immune systems into a semblance of order. Whether they succeed is, as always, a matter for the Fates – and a rigorous phase 3 trial or two.

1. Viking Therapeutics: A Tale of Two Hormones

Viking Therapeutics, a company whose name suggests a fondness for long voyages and even longer stock tickers, is following in Lilly’s wake by attempting to tame the ever-expanding waistlines of humanity. Their leading candidate, VK2735, is a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist – a mouthful, admittedly, but essentially a chemical mimic of two gut hormones that tell the brain, “We are, in fact, quite full.”2 It’s the same principle as Lilly’s Zepbound, but with a potentially crucial difference: Viking is developing both injectable and oral formulations. The latter, if successful, would be a boon for those who prefer not to resemble pincushions.

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They’re also experimenting with different dosing schedules – daily, weekly, monthly – attempting to find the sweet spot between efficacy and convenience. It’s a bit like trying to train a dragon: too little attention and it breathes fire, too much and it demands all your gold.3 The phase 2 results for VK2735 were promising, suggesting the dragon might be trainable after all. However, it’s a risky business. Clinical setbacks are the bane of biotech, capable of sinking a stock faster than a poorly constructed longship.

2. Abivax: Calming the Inner Storm

Abivax, meanwhile, is tackling a different beast altogether: ulcerative colitis (UC) and other autoimmune conditions. The market for UC treatments is… crowded, to say the least. Many pharmaceutical giants, including our aforementioned Lilly, are already vying for dominance. However, Abivax’s approach is subtly different. Their leading candidate, obefazimod, aims to control UC symptoms and induce remission without suppressing the entire immune system. This is rather like defusing a bomb with a feather duster – potentially effective, but requiring a delicate touch.

Most immunosuppressant drugs work by essentially telling the immune system to “calm down and have a lie-down.” This can be effective, but also leaves patients vulnerable to all sorts of opportunistic infections. It’s a trade-off, a Faustian bargain of sorts. Obefazimod, if it lives up to the hype, could offer a more nuanced solution, addressing the inflammation without dismantling the body’s defenses entirely. They’re currently running a maintenance study, with results expected in the second quarter. If the data is favorable, Abivax’s shares could experience a significant… uplift. Some analysts even predict annual sales exceeding $1 billion. But, as with all things in the realm of biotech, a clinical setback would be… problematic.4

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In conclusion, both Viking Therapeutics and Abivax represent intriguing – and undeniably risky – opportunities. They are smaller ships sailing in the wake of a pharmaceutical leviathan, hoping to catch a favorable wind. Whether they succeed remains to be seen. But in the ever-turbulent seas of biotech, a little ambition – and a healthy dose of skepticism – can go a long way.

1 Accounting, you see, is a dark art. Best not to ask too many questions.

2 Gut hormones, often overlooked, are the unsung heroes of digestion. They deserve a statue, frankly.

3 Dragons, while magnificent, are notoriously difficult to manage. Especially the ones with stock options.

4 “Problematic” is, of course, a polite way of saying “likely to cause a significant and immediate drop in share price.”

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2026-02-11 04:12