The Trade Desk: A Slow Descent

The chronicles tell us that shares of The Trade Desk (TTD 9.31%) experienced a rather…unpleasant tumble on Tuesday. A fall of 10.7% is, shall we say, noticeable, even in a market accustomed to fluctuations that resemble a drunken dwarf attempting to ride a unicycle. As of the third bell of the afternoon, the stock remained down a respectable 9.6% – a percentage that, if applied to a dragon’s hoard, would be considered a significant loss.¹

The inciting incident, as these things often are, was a pronouncement from the Oracle of Wall Street – or, more accurately, a KeyBanc analyst named Justin Patterson. He lowered his estimation of The Trade Desk’s future worth to a mere 40 gold pieces², down from a previous 88. It’s worth noting that this still suggests a potential increase of 35%, but investors, it seems, preferred to focus on the dwindling pile rather than the distant glimmer of more.

Patterson’s reasoning? A challenging environment for smaller adtech businesses, overrun by larger entities wielding the arcane power of Artificial Intelligence. These behemoths, it seems, are becoming rather adept at finding their target markets, leaving the smaller players to…well, mostly just exist. It’s a bit like trying to sell hand-carved whistles at a concert featuring enchanted trumpets.

This, of course, comes hot on the heels of the rather abrupt departure of CFO Alex Kayyal, dismissed after a mere five months on the job. A fleeting tenure, even by the notoriously capricious standards of high finance. It marks the second CFO to walk the plank in less than a year. One begins to suspect the position is cursed, or perhaps simply located too close to the office coffee machine.

These events, alas, are merely the latest chapters in a saga that has left some investors feeling…disenchanted. A year ago, The Trade Desk dared to miss its own predictions for the first time since becoming a public entity – a streak of 33 unbroken quarters! CEO Jeff Green attributed this to “a series of small execution missteps,” which, translated from the language of corporate euphemism, means “we messed up.”³ The promise of a swift return to form has, so far, remained unfulfilled, with growth slowing with each passing quarter.

Beyond this, the company faces the twin specters of slowing growth and increasing competition. It raises the unsettling question of whether The Trade Desk’s golden age has already passed, leaving it to become just another footnote in the ever-expanding ledger of failed ventures. The stock, having fallen more than 78% in the past year, offers little reassurance.

I confess to a fondness for The Trade Desk. However, I suggest a cautious approach. Watch for signs of a genuine turnaround – a glimmer of innovation, a surge in profitability, perhaps even a well-placed dragon sighting – before rushing to acquire shares. Otherwise, you might find yourself holding a bag full of…well, you get the idea.

¹ Dragons, naturally, are the preferred unit of account in certain circles. Their hoards are notoriously difficult to audit, which suits everyone involved.
² Gold pieces are a somewhat archaic unit, but still widely accepted, particularly by goblins and retired adventurers.
³ “Small execution missteps” is corporate-speak for “we had no idea what we were doing.”

2026-02-03 23:34

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